Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty.

The New York Liberty celebrate winning the Commissioner's Cup Championship game after defeating the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena. / Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

The fourth edition of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup tips off on Tuesday night with the Eastern Conference’s New York Liberty taking on the Western Conference’s Minnesota Lynx.

New York is looking to defend its Commissioner’s Cup title from the 2023 season when it defeated the Las Vegas Aces. There has never been a repeat champion in the first three years of the Commissioner’s Cup, as the Seattle Storm won in 2021, the Aces in 2022, and the Liberty in 2023. 

Can the Lynx keep that tradition going?

Oddsmakers aren’t quite sold on it despite the strong start to the season from Napheesa Collier and company. The Lynx are 13-3 and already have a 17-point win over the Liberty in their back pocket, but they’re set as five-point underdogs in this game. 

Let’s examine the odds, key players, and injury reports for Tuesday night to help us place a best bet on this contest. 

Lynx vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Lynx +5 (-110)
• Liberty -5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Lynx: +180
• Liberty: -218

Total

• 160.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lynx vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Tuesday, June 25
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: UBS Arena
• How to watch (TV): Prime Video
• Lynx record: 13-3
• Liberty record: 15-3

Lynx vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• Diamond Miller – out

Liberty Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Lynx vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: Collier had a big game against the Liberty earlier this season, putting up 15 points and 12 rebounds in a 17-point win. The former UConn star is averaging 20.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. After a few down-scoring games, Collier had 23 points and 14 boards in a win over the Phoenix Mercury on Saturday. 

New York Liberty

Sabrina Ionescu: Since Courtney Vandersloot (personal) has been out of the lineup, Ionescu has put on a show over the last seven games. The star guard is averaging 22.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game over that stretch while shooting 42.4 percent from 3-point range. The Liberty are 6-1 in those matchups. 

Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

I think the Lynx are underrated in this game – and they have honestly been underrated all season.

Minnesota ranks No. 1 in the WNBA in net rating at +12.9, and the Lynx already have a double-digit win over the Liberty this season.

Now, New York is No. 2 in net rating and has the best record in the league, but I am worried if it doesn’t have Betnijah Laney-Hamilton or Vandersloot, who both sat out the team’s last game. Vandersloot has missed seven straight for personal reasons. 

This matchup can’t get much better for a Commissioner’s Cup title, as it features the No. 1 defense (Minnesota) taking on the No. 1 offense (New York). 

However, it’s been the Lynx who have dominated against the spread this season, going 12-4 ATS and 6-1 ATS as an underdog. 

Meanwhile, the Liberty are just 7-11 against the spread overall and 6-11 ATS when favored.

I think these teams are a lot more evenly matched than this line suggests, and if Minnesota’s defense plays up to the same level we’ve seen in 2024, it should be able to keep this close. 

Pick: Lynx +5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.