Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

Can the Lynx remain atop the West with another road win?

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Mary Holt-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Lynx keep rolling to start the 2024 WNBA season, knocking off the Los Angeles Sparks on Wednesday night to improve to a Western Conference-best 7-2 on the season.

The Lynx have a WNBA Commissioner’s Cup matchup with the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night, and Phoenix is looking to stay afloat without Brittney Griner (foot/toe) in the lineup. The Mercury are coming off an ugly loss to the Seattle Storm where they shot just 4-for-23 from beyond the arc. 

Still, Phoenix is at home in this game – where it is 3-1 this season – and should bounce back a little on offense after an all-time bad shooting game. 

The Lynx are favored in this matchup, and they’re a perfect 4-0 against the spread on the road so far in 2024. 

Who has the edge in this Western Conference showdown?

Let’s break down the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Friday night’s matchup: 

Lynx vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Lynx -5.5 (-110)
• Mercury +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Lynx:-245
• Mercury: +200

Total

• 163.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lynx vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Friday, June 7
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Footprint Center
• How to watch (TV): ION
• Lynx record: 7-2
• Mercury record: 4-6

Lynx vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• Diamond Miller – out

Mercury Injury Report

• Brittney Griner – out
• Rebecca Allen – out

Lynx vs. Mercury Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: A contender for the MVP award this season, Collier is averaging 21.8 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.4 steals and 1.6 blocks per game. The UConn product is clearly the No. 1 option for the Lynx, but she’s shown improvement as a passer this season, which is helping take this team to the next level. Collier will be a nightmare for the Mercury to deal with since Griner is still sidelined. 

Not a hot take, but I really think Napheesa Collier has a legit shot to win MVP this year

— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) June 6, 2024

Phoenix Mercury

Kahleah Copper: A blockbuster trade this past offseason sent Copper to the Mercury, and she’s thriving so far in 2024, averaging 22.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game while shooting 39.4 percent from beyond the arc. The Mercury (eighth in offensive rating) will rely heavily on Copper’s scoring all season. 

Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

There’s no doubt that Phoenix has been a better team at home (3-1) versus on the road (1-5), but I still am not sold on backing the Mercury in this matchup. 

Minnesota has the No. 2 defensive rating and the No. 3 net rating in the WNBA this season, and it should make things tough on the Mercury offense (eighth in ORTG, eighth in effective field goal percentage) in this matchup. 

The Mercury have been rolling with a four-guard lineup (Copper, Natasha Cloud, Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham) with Griner out, and I think that could lead to them getting exposed by Collier and company in the painted area. 

The Lynx are the best team in the league against the spread – 8-1 – and they’ve gone a perfect 3-0 ATS as a favorite.

 Even with oddsmakers now recognizing the Lynx as a top team in the West, I think they can run away with this game given Phoenix’s up-and-down play to open 2024. 

Pick: Lynx -5.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.