Lynx vs. Sun Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Semifinals Game 4

Can the Lynx close out the series?

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Lynx inched closer to the WNBA Finals on Friday night, knocking off the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena – 90-81 – to take a 2-1 series lead.

With a win on Sunday, the Lynx would clinch a spot in the WNBA Finals, an impressive feat for an organization that had finished under .500 in each of the last two seasons.

Meanwhile, the Sun will look to force a winner-take-all Game 5. Connecticut is just 8-14-1 against the spread at home this season, and oddsmakers have it favored by just 1.5 points on Sunday. 

The Lynx dominated Game 3, shutting down the Connecticut offense through the first three quarters (CT had just 54 points) while Collier got back to her usual self (26 points) after scoring just nine points in Game 3. 

With the series on the line on Sunday, how should we bet on this matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bets for Game 4. 

Lynx vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Lynx +1.5 (-110)
• Sun -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Lynx: +100
• Sun: -120

Total

• 153.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Lynx vs. Sun How to Watch 

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 6
• Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena 
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Lynx lead 2-1

Lynx vs. Sun Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Sun Injury Report

• Tiffany Mitchell – out

Lynx vs. Sun Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: After a pair of down games to open this series, Collier came back with a massive Game 3, hunting mismatches in the post all night long. The All-WNBA forward finished Game 3 with 26 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and two steals, giving the Lynx back home court advantage in this series. I expect her to see another round of heavy usage in Game 4. x

Connecticut Sun

Marina Mabrey: With Ty Harris dealing with an ankle injury and playing minimal minutes off the bench right now, the Sun have inserted Mabrey into the starting lineup and relied on her heavily for offense. The veteran guard had been great through her first four playoff games, but she turned in an ugly Game 3, shooting just 1-for-11 from beyond the arc in the Sun’s loss. If Mabrey can’t get her shot going, this Connecticut team is going to struggle to keep up offensively. 

Lynx vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

These teams are the two best defensive squads in the league, but it’s been the Minnesota offense that has started to turn this series around.

Collier’s big Game 3, some impressive shot making from guard Courtney Williams and timely 3-balls from Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton have helped the Lynx rebound from a Game 1 loss. 

They’ve now led each game heading into the fourth quarter, and the Sun simply haven’t had enough offense to compete the last two games.

Harris’ injury – and now lack of playing time – is huge, as it gives the Lynx one less ball-handler and player to create offense off the dribble. 

Now, the Sun need Mabrey to bounce back to give Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner some support. 

Ultimately, I think the Lynx close out the series on Sunday. They have been money as underdogs this season – 12-3 against the spread – and they’ve severely outplayed Connecticut over the last eight quarters.

Connecticut has struggled against the spread at home, and I think the lack of offensive options has finally caught up to Stephanie White’s squad.

Pick: Lynx Moneyline (+100)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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