MAC College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season

Reed Wallach | Jul 31, 2024

Dec 30, 2023; Tucson, AZ, USA; Toledo Rockets quarterback Tucker Gleason (4) throws a pass to wide receiver Junior Vandeross III (2) during the second half against the Wyoming Cowboys in the Arizona Bowl at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The monsters of the midweek, MAC foobtall is upon us.

While we have some time before we get some weeknight football in the middle of the country, let's talk about who is poised to overperform and underperform expectations in the MAC this season. Can Toledo get back to the top of the league after Miami (Ohio) stopped the team from winning back-to-back league titles?

Here's how the MAC stacks up in 2024.

For more on the MAC check out the win totals for each team here as well as each team’s conference championship odds. 

MAC Conference Preview and Best Bets

Northern Illinois Over 6.5 Wins (-128, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Northern Illinois will need to replace longtime quarterback Rocky Lombardi at quarterback, but the pieces are in place for either veteran backup Ethan Hampton or Arkansas Pine-Bluff transfer Jalen Macon to be just fine in this offense. 

The Huskies return First Team All-MAC running back Antonio Brown as well as wide receiver Tayvon Rudolph in addition to four starting offensive line that protected the quarterback well last season, ranking 28th in sacks. 

Meanwhile, the defense will look to take a step forward after being impressive last season. The team was top 20 in EPA/Pass and returns a ton of experience on the defensive line despite losing headliner James Ester. There are seven players with 200-plus snaps back on the line to offset the loss of the 1st Team All MAC roster. 

Overall, there is plenty back on both sides of the ball for a team that won six regular season games and went 2-4 in one score games last season.

Meanwhile, the schedule sets up nicely for Thomas Hammock’s bunch. 

While MAC schedules are always tricky to sift through, the team is projected to be favorites in six games this season with some advantageous set ups throughout the season outside of the aforementioned six. The team hosts Toledo, who is playing a second straight road game ahead of that one. 

In a conference that is separated by thin margins, there may be some upside in DeKalb that makes me confident this team can outperform expectations. 

Ohio Under 6.5 Wins (-140, BET365)

The Bobcats have as little back as nearly any team in the country. Gone is the offense from the MAC Championship Game two years ago, or the defense that was top 20 in EPA/Play last season. 

The team ranks 127th in returning production this season. 

While the team looked competent in its bowl game win against Georgia Southern, newly minted starting running back Rickey Hunt ran for five touchdowns in the bowl game and starting quarterback Parker Navaro steps into QB1 duties as a junior after backing up the talented Kurtis Rourke. 

While many will look to that as a reason to be excited about this year’s team under Tim Albin after the team won 10 games in each of the past two seasons, I expect we see a slow build up here in 2024. 

The schedule does the team no favors either as the team is clear favorites in just four games this season with three other closely lined home games.

If we take the glass half full approach and the team takes care of business at home in six of the aforementioned seven, the team needs to win on the road against teams with more talent and continuity like Central Michigan to get over. 

There’s not much margin for error for a team that will look very little like the roster Albin had last season. It’s worth noting the team went 3-1 in one score games last season. 

MAC Championship Dark Horse: Bowling Green (+650, FD)

Scott Loeffler has been building up strong defenses with Bowling Green, and should be viewed as a top team in the MAC this season. 

BGSU tallied 33 sacks last season, 21st most in the country while ranking inside the top 50 in EPA/Play, yards per carry allowed and havoc rate. The Falcons forced more turnovers than any team in the country, which can lead to regression in some facets, but I still view this team as an intriguing one in the crowded MAC. 

The Falcons rank 46th in returning production, most notably running back Terion Stewart, who averaged over six yards per carry before a mid-season injury as well as an offensive line that looks to improve with five starting caliber players back.

The defense loses lineback Cashius Howell, who had more than nine sacks and led the team in tackles, but return three starters on the defensive line as well as Second Team All-MAC cornerback Darius Lorfils. 

I’m going to bank on the system for the Falcons to hold up year over year, even if it’s not as devastating with some turnover regression. 

Further, and what is most appealing is the schedule. The team draws Toledo on the road, but also hosts Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio), meaning that the team can control its own destiny with Stewart and a veteran quarterback like Conor Bazelak can make some noise in this conference. 

MAC Championship Prediction and Best Bet: Toledo (+320, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Toledo is typically rated the best team in the MAC behind an overwhelming talent advantage under head coach Jason Candle. 

However, this season, defending champion Miami (Ohio) enters as the favorite. 

The RedHawks won the MAC last season behind an elite defense that allowed nothing to opponents and offense that was timely behind backup quarterback Aveon Smith. 

Brett Gabbert, last season’s starter, returns, but he hasn’t made it through a full season since 2021. While talented, the team must replace a ton around him, namely 1,000-yard rusher Rashad Amos and wide receiver Gage Larvadain, who transfer to South Carolina. 

Further, the defense that ranked 23rd in EPA/Play and 16th in yards per play will need to replace five starters and hold up an incredibly high level of player. While both leading tacklers at linebacker, Matthew Salopek and Ty Wise return, the team lost its best pass rushers in Caiden Woullard, who is off to Oklahoma. 

The offense was never elite for the RedHawks, and any slip on defense can lead to a sizable jump back. 

It’s also worth noting that Chuck Martin’s special teams was elite last season, arguably the best in the country. So much so that the team’s kicker from last season, Graham Nicholson, transferred to Alabama. The team lost Nicholson, the Groza winner for nation’s best kicker, and special teams coordinator Jacob Bronowski, so a drop there as well. 

So, why Toledo? 

The Rockets do rank outside the top 120 in returning production, but the talent is still on hand, including veteran backup Tucker Gleason and running back Jacques Stuart. Meanwhile, the passing game will hope to be steady with a handful of contributors back at wide receiver, but the offensive line has more question marks than one would want. 

However, I’m trusting the talent to show up for Candle’s bunch, who has won seven or more games in three straight seasons. 

Further, the defense returns key contributors like Darius Alexander at defensive tackle and edge rusher D’Andre Ragin to hopefully make up for the loss in the secondary (namely Quinyon Mitchell at cornerback) that was top 10 in EPA/Pass. 

The Rockets host Miami (Ohio) after a bye which can be huge for determining the top of the conference and also hosts Bowling Green. 

I’m banking on talent and getting a bit of a break on the price for the Rockets now that the RedHawks are the defending champs. 

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