Marlins vs. Twins Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Thursday, Sept. 26 (Bet on Miami?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Marlins-Minnesota Twins matchup on Thursday, Sept. 26.

Miami Marlins pitcher Valente Bellozo. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins kept their wild card hopes alive on Wednesday, coming back to beat the Miami Marlins and remain just two games back of the Detroit Tigers for the final spot in the AL. 

Unfortunately, the Twins don’t control their own destiny, and they’ll need Detroit or Kansas City to stumble over the final few games to get in.

Luckily, the Twins have a winnable game as -258 favorites against the 58-win Marlins – the worst team in the National League. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch, and my prediction for Thursday’s interleague contest. 

Marlins vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-102)
• Twins -1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Marlins: +210
• Twins: -258

Total

• 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Marlins vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

• Miami: Valente Bellozo (3-4, 3.82 ERA)
• Minnesota: David Festa (2-6, 4.80 ERA)

Marlins vs. Twins How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 26
• Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Field
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports North
• Marlins record: 58-100
• Twins record: 82-76

Marlins vs. Twins Key Players to Watch

Miami Marlins

Valente Bellozo: The Marlins rookie has not been bad in 2024, posting a sub. 4.00 ERA and leading the Marlins to a win in half of his games. Over the last month, Bellozo has a 2.86 ERA, allowing three or fewer earned runs in every start in September. 

Minnesota Twins

Byron Buxton: The Twins scored eight runs on Wednesday night, getting contributions up and down the board, but it was Buxton, who hit a home run that may have come up the biggest with a 2-for-4 day. Can the Twins’ offense show up to give Festa the run support he needs on Thursday? 

Marlins vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

The Marlins deserve to be underdogs in this matchup, but they have the better pitcher on the mound. 

Bellozo has been solid in September, posting a 2.86 ERA across four starts, and the Marlins are now 6-6 straight up in his 12 outings. That may not seem great, but for a team that is 42 games under .500, having a .500 record when one pitcher is on the mound is worth noting.

Meanwhile, Festa has led the Twins to just a 6-7 record in his starts, posting a 4.58 ERA in 17.2 innings of work in September.

The Twins have all the motivation to win this game and the far better offense, but can we expect them to win by two or more runs? 

Miami is 39-38 on the run line as a road dog while the Twins are just 27-38 as a home favorite. At nearly even money, Miami is worth a bet to cover here. 

Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-102)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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