Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for NBA Cup Group Play

Should bettors wager on the Nuggets as home favorites?

Should bettors wager on the Nuggets as home favorites? / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Dallas Mavericks suffered a major blow on Thursday, as it was revealed that star guard Luka Doncic will miss time with a wrist injury that he suffered earlier in the week. 

Luka Doncic is expected to be re-evaluated in one week with a right wrist strain, sources said. https://t.co/nPsd8jGmNN

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 21, 2024

That puts Dallas in a tough spot on Friday night against the Denver Nuggets, who may be down two starters of their own.

Aaron Gordon (calf) has been ruled out for this matchup while Nikola Jokic has not returned to practice after missing the last three games for personal reasons. It’s unclear if the three-time league MVP will play on Friday as he’s listed as questionable.

Nikola Jokic was not at practice today, per Michael Malone. Aaron Gordon is still OUT.

“Aaron is still out, rehabbing. And Nikola was not at work today, you know, being with his family.” pic.twitter.com/2sUILTPOfk

— DNVR Nuggets (@DNVR_Nuggets) November 21, 2024

Both of these teams are 1-1 in NBA Cup play, although Dallas has a much better point differential (plus-38), entering Friday’s matchup. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my best bet for this NBA Cup clash. 

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mavs +3 (-115)
• Nuggets -3 (-105)

Moneyline

• Mavs: +124
• Nuggets: -148

Total

• 227 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mavericks vs. Nuggets How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Nov. 22
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Mavs record: 8-7
• Nuggets record: 8-5

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

• Luka Doncic – out
• Dante Exum – out
• Kessler Edwards – out
• Brandon Williams – out
• Jazian Gortman – out

Nuggets Injury Report

• Vlatko Cancar – out
• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Aaron Gordon – out
• Nikola Jokic – questionable
• Spencer Jones – out
• Jalen Pickett – out

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving: Irving has gotten off to a great start this season shooting the ball, averaging 24.3 points per game while shooting 54.5 percent from the field and 53.8 percent from beyond the arc. Now, he should see an expanded role as the No. 1 option on offense as long as Doncic is out of commission. 

Denver Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr.: The Nuggets have needed more from MPJ with Jokic out, and the former lottery pick delivered on Tuesday against Memphis, scoring 24 points on 11-of-21 shooting to help the Nuggets earn an NBA Cup win. He could see a boatload of shots again on Friday if the reigning league MVP sits. 

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

This game is really tough to bet without knowing Jokic’s status, but I lean with Denver at home because of the injury to Doncic. 

The Nuggets picked up a win without Jokic on Tuesday, and when Jokic plays and is on the court, they are +12.3 points per 100 possessions on the season. 

So, it may be worth grabbing Denver at this short moneyline price before we know his official status.

On the season, the Nuggets are just 5-7-1 against the spread while Dallas is 7-7-1 ATS, including a 2-1-1 ATS record as a road underdog. So, I won’t lay the points here especially with Jokic in question. 

Pick: Nuggets Moneyline (-148)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.