Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for New Year’s Day (Jan. 1)

Houston is 8-6 against the spread as a home favorite this season.

Houston is 8-6 against the spread as a home favorite this season. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Dallas Mavericks are entering a crucial stretch in the 2024-25 season, as Luka Doncic (calf) is expected to miss several weeks after getting injured on Christmas Day.

Dallas has fared well without Luka so far this season, winning seven of 11 games, but can it keep that going against the Houston Rockets and Alperen Sengun on Wednesday?

Houston enters the New Year with a 21-11 record, good for a top seed in the Western Conference. Right now, Houston is 1.5 games up on Dallas, although it has lost two in a row. 

The Rockets get things done on the defensive end of the floor (No. 2 in defensive rating), and they’ll look to slow down Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson, who are both being asked to carry a bigger load with Doncic out.

Here’s a full breakdown of this matchup, including the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction on Wednesday. 

Mavericks vs. Rockets  Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mavs +5 (-105)
• Rockets -5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Mavs: +170
• Rockets: -205

Total

• 221.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mavericks vs. Rockets How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Toyota Center
• How to Watch (TV): Space City Network, Bally Sports
• Mavs record: 20-13
• Rockets record: 21-11

Mavericks vs. Rockets  Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

• Luka Doncic – out
• Dante Exum – out
• Dereck Lively II – questionable
• Naji Marshall – out

Rockets Injury Report

• N’Faly Dante – out
• Tari Eason – questionable
• Jack McVeigh – out
• Nate Williams – out
• Amen Thompson – out

Mavericks vs. Rockets  Best NBA Prop Bets

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

• PJ Washington OVER 12.5 Points (-125)

This is a terrific spot for Mavericks forward PJ Washington, as he’s in line for a bigger offensive role for as long as Luka Doncic is sidelined with a calf injury.

Washington put up a smooth 28 points on 8-of-20 shooting (4-for-9 from 3) in his last game, and he’s averaging 17.5 points per game in 10 games that Luka has missed (and he’s played) so far in the 2024-25 campaign. 

In those 10 games, Washington has cleared 12.5 points in seven of them, taking at least 11 shots nine times. 

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jalen Green UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (+120)

Jalen Green is heavily favored to pick up five or more boards in this matchup, but he’s averaging just 4.4 boards per game on the season, including just 7.9 rebound chances per night. 

Now, Green may be overvalued on Wednesday since he grabbed 12 boards against Dallas the first time these teams met this season. In 32 games, Green has fewer than five boards in 19 of them. He’s only had one game with double-digit boards, which came against Dallas. 

I’m not buying this number on Wednesday. 

Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction and Pick

Dallas has played well without Luka this season, going 7-4 in 11 games, but it has lost back-to-back games to Portland and Sacramento – two teams that are outside of the playoff picture in the Western Conference.

The offensive ceiling is much lower for the Mavs without Luka, and that could be an issue against a Houston team that is 8-6 against the spread as a home favorite and No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating.

While Kyrie Irving has played at an All-NBA level, I’m not quite ready to buy a Klay Thompson resurgence to make up for the loss of Luka. 

Houston’s defense – even with Amen Thompson out – should be the difference in this game. 

Pick: Rockets -5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.