Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Jan. 23

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on Thursday night.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prop target tonight.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prop target tonight. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder played close games on Wednesday night, and now they’ll find themselves matched up on the second night of a back-to-back on Thursday.

The Mavs are reeling right now without Luka Doncic, falling to 10-12 without the All-NBA guard with a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. Kyrie Irving was terrific in that game, but with Doncic (calf) and Dereck Lively II (foot) both injured, the Mavs don’t have enough firepower to beat some of the league’s top teams.

That could be the case again on Thursday, as the Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference after beating the Utah Jazz on Wednesday. The matchup with the Jazz was a little closer than expected, but 54 points (a career-high) from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was enough to secure the win for OKC.

Now, oddsmakers have the Thunder favored by double digits once again on Thursday.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to consider in the prop market, and my prediction for this rematch of last season’s second round of the playoffs. 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

  • Mavericks +13 (-112)
  • Thunder -13 (-108)

Moneyline

  • Mavericks: +550
  • Thunder: -800

Total

  • 221 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mavericks vs. Thunder How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, Jan. 23
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Paycom Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local), NBA League Pass
  • Mavs record: 23-21
  • Thunder record: 36-7

Mavericks vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

  • Not submitted yet

(Note: Luka Doncic is out with a calf injury and Dereck Lively II is out with a foot injury. Klay Thompson, who was questionable yesterday, did not suit up against Minnesota). 

Thunder Injury Report

  • Not submitted yet

(Note: OKC has been without Chet Holmgren (hip) and Isaiah Hartenstein (soleus strain) recently. Holmgren is out for this game after his timetable to return was updated to three-to-five weeks last week). 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

  • Daniel Gafford OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-125)

With Lively II out, Gafford grabbed 12 rebounds on Wednesday night, and he’s grabbed 12 or more in three of his last four games.

Overall, Gafford is averaging just 6.4 rebounds per game, but he’s got a great matchup against the Thunder, who rank just 27th in the league in rebounding percentage and 28th in opponent rebounds per game.

While this number is a little higher than I’d like, I expect Gafford to play a major role in this matchup with the Mavs down so many key players. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-110)

SGA is coming off a career-high on Wednesday, and he’s dominated Dallas in his last two meetings against them, putting up 39 and 36 points. 

The Mavericks don’t have an ideal for SGA – not many teams do – and the Thunder guard is averaging 35.2 points per game over his last 15 games. Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 56.9 percent from the field over that stretch, clearing 31.5 points in 10 of those games.

He’s a must-bet against a Dallas team that is just 17th in the league in defensive rating over its last 10 games. 

Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Even though OKC failed to cover the spread as a home favorite on Wednesday, it is still 14-6-1 ATS in those games, posting an average scoring margin of +14.0 points per game in those contests.

The Thunder have far and away the best defensive rating in the NBA, and they’ve gone an astounding 20-2 straight up at home.

While the Mavericks put up a fight against Minnesota on Wednesday, this is a major step up in class for a squad that is down two starters – and possibly more – on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Not only that, but the Mavs are just 6-7-1 against the spread as road underdogs in the 2024-25 season. 

I’ll lay the points with the Thunder here, especially since SGA has dominated Dallas this season. 

Pick: Thunder -13 (-108)


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.


Published
Peter Dewey
PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.