Memphis vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 3

Reed Wallach | Sep 9, 2024

Memphis' Seth Henigan (9) prepares to hike the ball during the game between Memphis and North Alabama at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tenn., on Saturday, August 31, 2024. / Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Arguably no team’s stock in college football has fallen faster than Florida State, who sits 0-2 after an early BYE week in Week 2. 

The Seminoles offense was shaky at best in the first two games of the season as the team is feeling the effects of losing many key contributors from last year’s ACC title team. The team got a week off to reset, but now welcomes another formidable foe in Memphis to Tallahassee, one of the best Group of Five teams with an eye on scoring a big win for its College Football Playoff hopes. 

Will FSU get back on track, or is this a continuation of the first two games? 

Here’s how I’m looking to bet it:

Memphis vs. Florida State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Memphis: +7 (-106)
• Florida State: -7 (-112)

Moneyline

• Memphis: +215
• Florida State: -265

Total: 52.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Memphis vs. Florida State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Memphis Record: 2-0
• Florida State Record: 2-0

Memphis vs. Florida State Key Players to Watch

Memphis

Seth Henigan: In his fourth year starting at Memphis, Henigan is one of the most consistent passers in college football. He has racked up over 11,000 yards in his career with 82 passing touchdowns and only 25 interceptions. Can he announce himself as a CFP-level quarterback on Saturday against an ACC defense?

Florida State

DJ Uiagalelei: Confidence in the Oregon State and Clemson transfer is waning. The Seminoles offense has struggled through its first two games and Uiagalelei doesn’t look comfortable whatsoever. He has completed 58% of his passes for only 465 yards with one touchdown and an interception thus far. 

Memphis vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

The Florida State offense got a week off after a dismal start to the season that saw the team’s CFP and ACC title hopes all but evaporate. 

Sure, there is rightful concern about the Seminoles coming out of a BYE still in a tailspin, but I believe that this offense will improve against a still suspect Memphis defense. If the team starts slow with Uigalelei under center, I think the team could go to backup Brock Glenn to hopefully ignite the offense. 

The Tigers' defense hasn’t been challenged yet this season, and despite some transfer talent coming in, I’m not sold. This roster is all that improved from last season’s group that was outside the top 100 in yards per play allowed. 

Further, Troy was able to create explosive plays at a high rate in the Tigers' 21-point win. The scoreboard didn’t do justice to the Troy offense's ability to move the ball, as the Trojans had a 45% success rate (68th percentile compared to games last season) and a 10% explosive play rate (70th percentile). 

Memphis has a potent offense with Hengian in control, and I’m not sold on this FSU defense playing at an above-average level. 

I’ll grab the over with questions for both defense and also the opportunity to buy low on the Noles offense.

PICK: OVER 52.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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