Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for WNBA Playoffs Game 2

Do the Lynx cover the spread as favorites at home?

WNBA Commissioner Cathy Englebert gives the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship MVP award to Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Offense was the name of the game on Sunday, as the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury combined for 197 points in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series.

Minnesota pulled out a seven-point win in the matchup after surging out to a 13-point first-quarter lead. 

Now, the Mercury and Diana Taurasi have their backs against the wall in Game 2 despite covering the spread in Game 1. 

Will Taurasi (5-for-10 form 3 in Game 1) and Natasha Cloud (33 points, 10 assists in
Game 1) bring another A game to keep Phoenix’s season alive?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch, and my best bet for Game 2 on Wednesday night. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mercury +8.5 (-110)
• Lynx -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +320
• Lynx: -410

Total

• 160.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mercury vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 25
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Minnesota leads 1-0

Mercury vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Rebecca Allen – out

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury vs. Lynx Key Players to Watch

Phoenix Mercury

Natasha Cloud: Let’s be honest, Phoenix would have been blown out in Week 1 if it wasn’t for Cloud. The  Mercury guard shot 14-for-23 from the field and 4-for-8 from 3 while adding six rebounds and 10 dimes in the seven-point loss. I don’t think it’s feasible for her to repeat that showing, but it’s clear that Phoenix needs her scoring to keep up in this matchup. 

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: The All-Star forward showed that she’s ready for the playoffs on Sunday, dropping 38 points on 11-of-19 shooting from the field in the Lynx’s win. Collier is the go-to player on offense for Minnesota, and with the Mercury starting four guards, she’s a matchup nightmare for them on defense. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

The Lynx failed to cover in Game 1 – something that was disappointing after a 32-19 first quarter, but they still ended up beating the Mercury by seven points. 

With this spread moving down a point to 8.5 in Game 2, I’m going back to the Lynx for a few reasons.

First off, Minnesota dominated during the regular season against the Mercury, winning at home by 24 and 13 points. It also outranked the Mercury in every key category from net rating to offensive rating to defensive rating to effective field goal percentage. 

Phoenix hung around in Game 1 thanks to 33 points and 10 assists from Natasha Cloud and a 5-for-10 shooting night from 3 from Diana Taurasi.

Are those two things repeatable in Game 2? I don’t think so.

Phoenix shot 14-for-27 from 3 (51.9 percent) in Game 1 and still lost by seven. There’s a reason the Mercury were 8-13 ATS as underdogs in the regular season, and I don’t see them keeping this one close after losing Game 1 despite bringing their A+ offense.  

Pick: Lynx -8.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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