Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

Can Minnesota remain dominant at home?

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Will this be Diana Taurasi’s last playoff run? 

The legendary Phoenix Mercury guard has hinted at a potential retirement, but she’ll look to win a fourth WNBA title first as the No. 7-seeded Mercury begin their postseason on the road against the No. 2-seeded Minnesota Lynx.

Another UConn legend, forward Napheesa Collier, stands in Taurasi’s way, as she led the Lynx to a WNBA Commissioner’s Cup victory earlier this season.

The Lynx only lost 10 games during the regular season, posting the No. 2 defensive rating in the WNBA in the process. In the four games between these teams in the regular season, Minnesota won three of them by 24, 13 and 13 points. The Mercury earned a one-point win at home in the second meeting between these teams. 

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting this to be close, as the Lynx are set as 9.5-point favorites – one of three favorites of eight or more points on the slate for the Game 1 action on Sunday.

How should we bet on this matchup? I have the latest odds, players to watch, and of course, my best bet for Sunday’s action. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mercury +9.5 (-108)
• Lynx -9.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +410
• Lynx: -550

Total

• 158 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mercury vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 22
• Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center 
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Mercury vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Rebecca Allen – out
• Charisma Osborne – out

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury vs. Lynx Key Players to Watch

Phoenix Mercury

Kahleah Copper: A former Finals MVP, Copper was brought to Phoenix in the offseason to help this team contend for a title. Now, it’s time for her to lead the way. During the regular season, Copper averaged 21.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game while shooting 43.5 percent from the field. She’s been up and down against Minnesota, scoring 21, 34, nine and 13 points against the Lynx in four games. 

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: One of the best players in the WNBA this season, Collier averaged 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.4 blocks per game in 2024. The Mercury did hold her to just 12 points in their last meeting, but Collier’s impact is much more than just scoring the ball. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

Minnesota rolled during the regular season against the Mercury, winning at home by 24 and 13 points – which would easily cover this number on Sunday.

I don’t want to count out veterans like Copper, Taurasi and Brittney Griner in a playoff setting, but the Lynx were far and away a better team during the regular season. Just look at how these teams stacked up in some key statistics in 2024: 

Net Rating 

• Lynx: +8.0 (third)
• Mercury: -4.1 (ninth)

Defensive Rating

• Lynx: 94.8 (second)
• Mercury: 105.4 (ninth)

Offensive Rating

• Lynx: 102.8 (fourth)
• Mercury: 101.3 (eighth)

Effective Field Goal Percentage

• Lynx: 51.8% (fourth)
• Mercury: 50.3% (sixth)

The Mercury have also struggled as underdogs (8-13 against the spread) so far this season. I’ll lay the points with the Lynx at home. 

Pick: Lynx -9.5 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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