Mercury vs. Sun WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Sunday, July 14 (Bet on Connecticut)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Phoenix Mercury-Connecticut Sun matchup on Sunday, July 14.

Connecticut Sun forward DeWanna Bonner. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Connecticut Sun are two games back of the No. 1 seed in the WNBA, but they’re in a favorable spot on Sunday against the 12-11 Phoenix Mercury. 

Oddsmakers have favored the Sun by nine points in this matchup, mainly because Diana Taurasi, Natasha Cloud and Brittney Griner are all questionable. If they all miss this matchup, Kahleah Copper is going to be asked to carry a massive load on offense. 

The Sun beat the Mercury by 11 on July 1, and they’ll look to keep that rolling at home where they are 9-3 straight up in 2024. 

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and a best bet for this matinee matchup on Sunday. 

Mercury vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Mercury +9 (-105)
• Sun -9 (-115)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +470 
• Sun: -650

Total

• 154 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mercury vs. Sun How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 14
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Mercury record: 12-11
• Sun record: 17-5

Mercury vs. Sun Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Diana Taurasi – questionable
• Natasha Cloud – questionable
• Brittney Griner – questionable
• Sug Sutton – out
• Charisma Osborne – out

Sun Injury Report

• Tiffany Mitchell – day-to-day
• Moriah Jefferson – out

Mercury vs. Sun Key Players to Watch

Phoenix Mercury

Kahleah Copper: Copper could be in line for a massive role on Sunday if Taurasi, Griner and Cloud – or any combination of those three – end up sitting out. The star guard is averaging 23.5 points per game while shooting 44.9 percent from the field. She’s coming off 32 points and 36 points in her last two games. 

Connecticut Sun

DeWanna Bonner: Bonner is hot right now, scoring 22 or more points in each of her last three games after she was held to just seven points by the Mercury on July 1. Bonner enters Sunday’s game averaging 17.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. 

Mercury vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

Phoenix has been a much better team against the spread than the Sun, covering in its last three games, but I’m going to roll with the Sun in this one given the injury issues.

This line already suggests that oddsmakers are expecting someone to miss this game for the Mercury, and I think the Sun are a little undervalued with this line moving from 11 to nine throughout the morning. 

Even if all of the Mercury starters suit up, this Sun team is an elite defensive squad that is second in the W in net rating so far in the 2024 season. 

Despite Bonner having an awful game on July 1, the Sun still won by 11 points, and Phoenix has struggled on the road, going just 4-7 straight up. 

I lean with the Sun to cover this spread at home. 

Pick: Sun -9 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.