Mets vs. Braves Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for Monday, Sept. 30

There are major playoff implications in the Braves-Mets doubleheader on Monday.

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves have a ton on the line on Monday, as they play a doubleheader to make up two games that they missed early last week. 

These two division rivals are tied in the wild card standings at 88-72, along with the 89-73 Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Here’s how things will shake out, depending upon what happens in this doubleheader:

• Mets win both games: New York earns No. 2 wild card spot, Arizona earns No. 3, Braves are eliminated.
• Braves win both games: Atlanta earns No. 2 wild card spot, Arizona earns No. 3, Mets are eliminated.
• Doubleheader is split: Atlanta earns No. 2 wild card spot, New York earns No. 3, Arizona is eliminated. 

So, a ton is at stake for both teams and the D-Backs, who can’t control their own destiny now that their regular season is done. 

The Mets find themselves as underdogs on the road in Game 1, but can they pull off the upset and lock up a playoff spot? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for this matchup. 

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-170)
• Braves -1.5 (+142)

Moneyline

• Mets: +136
• Braves: -162

Total

• 7.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mets vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

• New York: Tylor Megill (4-5, 3.98 ERA)
• Atlanta: Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47 ERA)

Mets vs. Braves How to Watch 

• Date: Monday, Sept. 30
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Truist Park
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Mets record: 88-72
• Braves record: 88-72

Mets vs. Braves Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Francisco Lindor: After going down with an injury earlier this month, Lindor returned to action in the Mets’ weekend series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The star shortstop went 4-for-12 in the series, hitting a home run on Sunday in a huge win. Lindor also drew two walks and scored two runs in the series.  

Atlanta Braves

Spencer Schwellenbach: Since the start of July, Schwellenbach has been great for the Braves, posting a 2.65 ERA across 14 starts. The righty has led the team to a 9-5 record over that stretch and has punched out 90 batters in 85.0 innings of work. He’s held the Mets to just one run on five hits in 14.0 innings (two starts) this eason. 

Mets vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

I lean with Atlanta in Game 1 for a number of reasons, starting with Schwellenbach’s success against the Mets.

The righty has allowed just five total hits in two starts against them this season, leading Atlanta to a 4-0 win and a 5-1 win. 

Now, the Mets have a quick turnaround after flying in from Milwaukee to play a 1:10 p.m. EST start on Monday. Not ideal. 

Megill has been great over his last five starts, posting a 1.78 ERA, but he also has multiple outings in that stretch where he only worked through four innings. That puts a lot of pressure on the Mets bullpen if he can’t work deep into this game – especially with a Game 2 happening shortly after. 

With the Braves getting to stay at home after facing the Kansas City Royals this weekend, I think they gave an edge in the opener of this doubleheader. 

Pick: Braves Moneyline (-162)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.