Mets vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for NL Wild Card Game 1

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Mets-Milwaukee Brewers Game 1 matchup in the NL Wild Card.

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

October baseball is upon us!

After picking up a huge comeback win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of a doubleheader on Monday, the New York Mets are back in the playoffs and ready to take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Wild Card.

This is a quick turnaround for the Mets, who were in Milwaukee on Sunday, flew to Atlanta for a doubleheader on Monday, then flew back to Milwaukee for Tuesday’s Game 1. 

Francisco Lindor saved the day for the Mets against the Braves, hitting a two-run home run in the ninth inning in Game 1 of that doubleheader. Can he and the Mets continue their Cinderella run in the playoffs?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, probable pitchers and my prediction for Game 1 of Mets-Brewers.

Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-185)
• Brewers -1.5 (+154)

Moneyline

• Mets: +120
• Brewers: -142

Total

• 7.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Mets vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

• New York: Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA)
• Milwaukee: Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA)

Mets vs. Brewers How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 1 
• Time: 5:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: American Family Field
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Mets vs. Brewers Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Francisco Lindor: Since returning from an injury, Lindor has been fantastic, hitting a home run in two games (against Milwaukee on Sunday and Atlanta on Monday) to lead the Mets to the playoffs. Lindor was 4-for-12 with a homer, two walks, two runs and two runs batted in against the Brewers over the weekend. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Freddy Peralta: Peralta made one start against the Mets this season – on Opening Day – and he threw six innings of one-hit, one-run ball in a 3-1 Brewers win. Peralta is coming into the playoffs in a great spot, posting a 2.34 ERA over his last eight starts. 

Mets vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

The Mets may be the hottest team in baseball, but this is a massive, massive ask for them to win Game 1. 

Not only has New York struggled against the Brewers this season (1-5 straight up), and it has been flying back and forth across the country due to its schedule. That could catch up to the Mets in Game 1.

Peralta is the pitcher I’d trust in this matchup – even though Severino has been solid in 2024. New York is just 15-16 in Severino’s starts, and he’s struggled a bit over the last two months, allowing 57 hits and 16 walks in 58.1 innings of work. 

The other key in this matchup in the bullpen. The Brewers have the No. 2 bullpen ERA in baseball, and they should be fresher than the Mets, who had to go all out to win Game 1 on Monday against the Braves. 

I’ll back the Brew Crew to take Game 1 at home. 

Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-142)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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