Mets vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for NL Wild Card Game 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the deciding Game 3 of the NL Wild Card between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers were the only team in the Wild Card to force a deciding Game 3 on Thursday, knocking off the New York Mets behind homers from Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell. 

Now, Milwaukee has a chance to win and advance to play the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS on Thursday.

During the regular season, the Brewers went 5-1 against the Mets, including a 6-0 win on Sept. 28 against Jose Quintana. 

The Mets lefty will get the ball again here in Game 3 after he posted a 10-10 record and 3.75 ERA in the regular season. New York was 16-15 overall in Quintana’s starts, and it’s hoping he can turn in a stronger performance this time around against Milwaukee. 

Oddsmakers have favored the Brewers at home in Game 3.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, probable pitchers, players to watch and my prediction for Thursday’s series-deciding contest. 

Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-198)
• Brewers -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline

• Mets: +105
• Brewers: -125

Total

• 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mets vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

• New York: Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA)
• Milwaukee: Tobias Myers (9-6, 3.00 ERA)

Mets vs. Brewers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 3
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: American Family Field
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 1-1

Mets vs. Brewers Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Jose Quintana: New York’s season rests on the shoulders of lefty Jose Quintana, who closed out the regular season strong in September. Across four starts that month, Quintana posted a 0.72 ERA, leading the Mets to a 3-1 record. He did struggle in his last start against the Brewers, allowing five hits and two runs across 4.1 innings – but he did strike out nine. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Jackson Chourio: The Brewers rookie came up big in Game 2, hitting two home runs to help lead them to a 5-3 win. Garrett Mitchell hit the go-ahead homer late in the game, but that doesn’t become possible without Chourio’s big day. During the regular season, Chourio hit .275 with 21 homers and 79 runs batted in across 148 games. 

Mets vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

The first two games in this series had 12 and eight combined runs respectively, and I think we could be in line for another high-scoring affair on Thursday.

Tobias Myers (3.00 ERA) has solid numbers this season, but the Brewers have had a quick hook with him down the stretch, not allowing him to pitch more than four innings in each of his last three appearances.

Even though he has a great ERA, Meyers’ FIP is nearly a run higher (3.91), and he has an expected ERA of 4.11 on the season.

Quintana also has a FIP (4.56) that is higher than his ERA, and prior to a strong September, he had struggled in August, posting a 5.63 ERA over six starts with the Mets going 1-5 in those games. 

Both of these offenses have stepped up during this series, and while the Brewers had the No. 2 bullpen ERA in the league in the regular season, both bullpens have ERAs over 4.00 in this series. 

I’d rather take the OVER here than lock myself into a side with all hands on deck in the pitching department in Game 3. 

Pick: OVER 7.5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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