Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Thursday, Aug. 29 (Expect Plenty of Runs)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Mets-Arizona Diamondbacks matchup on Thursday.

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks are playing the third and final game of their series on Thursday with the race for the NL wild card heating up. 

These teams split the first two games of this series, combining for 11 and 13 runs in those matchups.

Oddsmakers are expecting a lower-scoring matchup on Thursday, setting the total at 8.5 with David Peterson and Ryne Nelson on the mound.

Let’s dive into the odds, probable pitchers, players to watch, and my prediction for Thursday’s series finale. 

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-198)
• D-Backs -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline

• Mets: +102
• D-Backs: -122

Total

• 8.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

• New York: David Peterson (8-1, 2.85 ERA)
• Arizona: Ryne Nelson (9-6, 4.29 ERA)

Mets vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Aug. 29
• Time: 3:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, MLB Extra Innings
• Mets record: 69-64
• D-Backs record: 76-57

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

David Peterson: The lefty has led the Mets to a 12-3 record in his outings this season, but his advanced numbers are still a little shaky. Despite a 2.85 ERA, Peterson has an expected ERA of 5.24 this season. He also has a 1.32 WHIP, walking 37 betters across 85.1 innings of work. Does he come back to earth against baseball’s No. 1 scoring offense? 

Arizona Diamondbacks 

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: This is a prime matchup for outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has crushed left-handed pitching. In 149 at-bats against lefties, Gurriel is hitting .336 with six homers and 23 runs batted in. He may tee off on Peterson, who has overperformed in 2024. 

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Arizona is the highest-scoring offense in baseball, and it has hit the OVER 58.3 percent of the time in the 2024 season. 

Both of these teams scored enough to soar past this total in Games 1 and 2 of this series, and this pitching matchup should lead to plenty of runs.

I already discussed the issues for Peterson, who is outperforming just about every advance metric this season, and I think he comes back to earth against an Arizona team that ranks No. 2 in the league in OPS against left-handed pitching.

Not only that, but Arizona starter Ryne Nelson (4.29 ERA) has seen the total go OVER 8.5 runs in eight of his last 10 starts. The righty has pitched better in August (3.28 ERA), but I don’t trust him to completely shut down a Mets lineup that is top 10 in baseball in OPS and 10th in runs scored per game. 

Expect plenty of runs for both sides on Thursday afternoon. 

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-102)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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