Mets vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, July 1 (Can Mets Stay Hot?)

Can the New York Mets stay hot on Monday?

New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

June was kind to the New York Mets, who have surged back to just one game under .500 on the season heading into Monday’s meeting with the Washington Nationals.

Washington has been better this season than in years past, but it is five games under .500 and in fourth place – behind New York – in the NL East. 

MacKenzie Gore will get the ball for the Nats in this game, and while he’s arguably been the team's best pitcher, he didn’t fare well against the Mets the last time these teams faced off. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds, probable pitchers and my best bet to place for this divisional matchup. 

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+145)
• Nationals +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

• Mets: -115
• Nationals: -105

Total

• 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

• New York: David Peterson (3-0, 3.67 ERA)
• Washington MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 3.60 ERA)

Mets vs. Nationals How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 1
• Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Nationals Park
• How to watch (TV): SNY, MASN
• Mets record: 40-41
• Nationals record: 39-44

Mets vs. Nationals Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Francisco Alvarez: Francisco Alvarez has gotten hot over the last month, raising his batting average from .224 to .301 in the month of June. He hit .375 with three homers and 12 runs batted in across 16 games, a sign of hopefully more to come for this rebuilding Mets squad. 

Washington Nationals

MacKenzie Gore: After a really strong first two months of the season, Gore took a bit of a step back in June, posting a 5.13 ERA in five starts. The biggest issue for Gore comes in the walks department (he had 11 in June), something he’ll need to clean up going forward. Gore was rocked by the Mets in June, allowing seven hits and six runs in his last outing against them. 

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

I do think Gore is the better pitcher in this matchup, but I’m not sold on Washington winning this game.

David Peterson has a nice ERA (and record) on the surface, he could be due for some regression with a 5.01 FIP and a 6.12 expected ERA – which is in the third percentile in MLB.

Still, there is a massive offensive gap between these two teams that I think gives the Mets the edge.

Washington is just 24th in MLB in OPS while the Mets clock in at No. 7, and the Nationals have struggled in Gore’s starts despite him pitching well, going 7-9 straight up. 

Even with Peterson not pitching great, the Mets are 4-1 in his outings, and they’ve been a better team on the road (19-16) than at home (21-25) this season.

The Nationals are an under .500 team at home, and Gore couldn’t do much against this Mets lineup early last month. 

I’m going to ride the hotter team in New York to get the win on Monday. 

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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