Mets vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for Tuesday, July 23 (Bet the UNDER)

Who has the edge in tonight's Subway Series matchup?

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Subway Series heads to the Bronx on Tuesday night as the New York Yankees and New York Mets face off for the second time this season. 

Back in late June, the Mets won back-to-back games against the Yankees while scoring an impressive 21 runs.

Aaron Boone’s club will look to flip the script on Tuesday, and it needs to play better if it wants a chance to win the AL East this season. The Yankees currently sit 1.5 games back of the Baltimore Orioles in the division after picking up their 60th win of the season (one of four teams to get there in 2024) on Monday afternoon. 

The Mets, on the other hand, hold the third and final wild card spot in the National League, but they’re just half a game up on the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres. 

Can the Yankees get their revenge at home after falling behind 0-2 in the season series?

Here’s a look at the odds, starting pitchers and my prediction for tonight’s matchup. 

Mets vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-162)
• Yankees -1.5 (+136)

Moneyline

• Mets: +136
• Yankees: -162

Total

• 8.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Mets: Jose Quintana (4-6, 4.13 ERA)
• Yankees: Luis Gil (10-5, 3.17 ERA)

Mets vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 23
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): YES Network, TBS
• Mets record: 51-48
• Yankees record: 60-42

Mets vs. Yankees Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Pete Alonso: Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has been hot since the All-Star break, picking up four hits over his last three games while also scoring two runs. In his career against the Yanks, Alonso is hitting just .218, but eight of his 19 hits are home runs. Don’t be shocked if he goes deep on Tuesday night. 

New York Yankees

Luis Gil: After a rough stretch in late June into July, Luis Gil has returned to his early-season form in his last two outings. The rookie allowed just one run in each of his last two starts, striking out 16 players over 12.2 innings of work. While the Yankees did lose one of those games (they didn’t score), Gil has kept them in nearly every game this season, leading to New York going 13-6 in his 19 starts. 

Mets vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

The key for the Yankees in this matchup will be Gil, as he’s looked the part once again in his last two starts. After a five-start stretch from June 9 through July 2 where he posted a 8.85 ERA, Gil has rebounded nicely, giving up just two earned runs and nine hits over 12.2 innings of work. 

He takes the mound against Mets lefty Jose Quintana, who was allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. Granted, he allowed five runs in his last outing, but this could be a good matchup for Quintana since the Yankees rank just 19th in MLB in OPS against lefties. 

Both of these teams have hit the OVER in more than 55 percent of their games this season, but I’m going to go against the grain and take the UNDER.

The Mets are much better against lefties (top-five in OPS) than righties in 2024, and the Yankees offense only features two players (Aaron Judge and Juan Soto) who have been true threats over the last month. 

I don’t see the Mets scoring a ton of runs again, even though they got to Gil in his start against them in late June. 

There’s some value in taking the UNDER at nearly plus money. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-102)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.