Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Reed Wallach | Sep 30, 2024

Sep 28, 2024; Pasadena, California, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) runs past UCLA Bruins linebacker Carson Schwesinger (49) during the second quarter at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Oregon continues Big Ten play in hopes of building momentum with Ohio State around the corner with a visit from Michigan State. 

It’s a brutal spot for the Spartans, who make the trip to Eugene under first year head coach Jonathan Smith, who has experience against the Ducks as former head coach of Oregon State. Oregon has a potent offense and an emerging defense that will look to shut down talented quarterback Aidan Chiles. 

Here’s how we are betting the Big Ten showdown on Friday night:

Michigan State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Michigan State: +24 (-110)
• Oregon: -24 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: +1100
• Oregon: -2200

Total: 52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan State vs. Oregon How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 4th
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Autzen Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Michigan State Record: 2-2
• Oregon Record: 3-2

Michigan State vs. Oregon Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

Aidan Chiles: Chiles has shown plenty of talent for the rebuilding Spartans in his first season as the full time starter, but there has also been some mistakes that will hopefully get ironed out with more reps. Chiles has made seven big time throws to 14 turnover worthy plays so far this season while completing only 55% of his passes, per Pro Football Focus. 

Oregon

Dillon Gabriel: Gabriel continues to be efficient and keeping the Ducks offense on the move this season. While there has been some concern about the offensive line of Oregon, the offense continues to operate at a high level. The Ducks quarterback is 36th in EPA/Play this season, but is outside the top 100 in explosive play rate. It’s been a lot of methodical drives for Oregon, but the team has scored 30 or more in three of four games so far this season. 

Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

After facing Ohio State on the road, Michigan State is out west to face Oregon on a short week, as hard of a turnaround you can ask for in college football. 

The Spartans offensive line has dealt with injuries all season and it won’t get any easier against Oregon’s vaunted pass rush that is 15th in PFF’s grading system. The Ducks should be able to feast on Michigan State’s patchwork OL and get to Chiles, which ranks 128th in pass blocking grade. 

Oregon, meanwhile, has been able to rack up points, but the drives have been methodical. Further, Michigan State has done a great job at getting to the quarterback, ranking 12th in the country in sacks with 15 through five games and ranking 29th in yards per carry allowed. 

With Oregon lacking an explosive play element, I think this game can be a bit more defensive minded than some anticipated. 

UNDER: 52.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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