Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul Odds and Best Betting Value

In what will be the most watched boxing match in history, do the sportsbooks have the lines set correctly?

Sep 15, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Boxer Mike Tyson on the field before the game between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Once known as “The Baddest Man on the Planet”, 58-year-old Mike Tyson will step into the ring on Friday night in Dallas in an attempt to silence the YouTube influencer turned boxing sensation, 27-year-old Jake Paul. 

As someone who considers themselves a boxing purist it is hard to take this fight seriously. “Iron” Mike hasn’t competed in a professional bout in almost 20 years, while his opponent in Paul has padded his 10-1 record by dismantling social media influencers and washed up MMA fighters with his sole loss coming against an actual professional boxer in Tommy Fury, the younger brother of heavyweight legend Tyson Fury.

To the dismay of many concerned about Tyson’s capacity to take damage from an opponent three decades his junior, the state of Texas decided to sanction this as a professional bout rather than an exhibition. But here we are. The fight will consist of 8 2-minute rounds (rather than the standard 3 in a men’s professional bout) with 14 oz gloves (as opposed to 10 oz) which are generally used in sparring for the safety of the contestants. 

While I really don’t love the idea of this fight in the first place, as a bettor I have scoured the odds to find some value and have found a wager that I do feel somewhat strongly about.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul odds

To win

• Jake Paul (-210)
• Mike Tyson (+172)

Method of victory

• Paul by points or decision (+280)
• Paul by KO/TKO (+140)
• Tyson by points or decision (+1100)
• Tyson by KO/TKO (+240)
• Draw (+1100)
• Fight goes the distance (+156)
• Fight doesn't go the distance (-200)

Best bet: Under 5.5 rounds (-112)

Regardless of the outcome, there is a lot at stake financially for the players here. The purse is $80 million with Paul expected to take home at least half. With over 250 million subscribers there is a lot at stake here for Netflix as well, as they stick their head into the live sports streaming market.

A long drawn out fight that goes to a decision after 8 rounds would be a disaster for all involved. Knockouts sell fights and that is what everyone involved here should be hoping for. I do believe (maybe somewhat overly optimistically) that both fighters will give their absolute best and try to win this fight without any of the chicanery involved that has been associated with the sport of boxing.

With that being said the KO has to be on both their minds and I anticipate they will take the first round or two to feel each other out and find distance, and by the time they 3rd round commences they should feel more comfortable letting the hands go and with the power both of them possess, one should be horizontal on the canvas, waking up to the the bright lights of AT&T Stadium in Dallas before the halfway mark of the 5th round.

Dart Throw: Mike Tyson via KO/TKO (+240)

If you are approaching this fight from a purely entertainment value standpoint and want to have a ticket on the fight that provides the most excitement with a little value, the obvious dart throw would be to bet on Mike Tyson doing what he used to do better than anyone in the world and flatlining Jake Paul.

The court of public opinion is certainly in Tyson’s favor and he has looked in ridiculously good shape this week in the lead up to the fight. If he catches Paul cleanly it would certainly be lights out for Paul, and while I wish the books were providing a little more value on this line, a dart throw on Mike Tyson via KO, will be a fun ticket to root for.