Milan vs. Juventus Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Serie A Week 13

Can Christian Pulisic and AC Milan deal Juventus their first Serie A loss of the season?

IMAGO/sportphoto24

After Napoli and Inter dominated the competition in Italy in back-to-back years respectively, the Serie A has a title race that we haven’t seen since the 2021-22 season. What make this year even more fascinating, however, is the fact there are seven teams with legitimate title hopes. In fact, only two points separate the first place Napoli and sixth-place Juventus. 

Compared to other Scudetto hopefuls, AC Milan is off to a slow start. They are in seventh-place, desperately hoping not to fall behind the top six. 

On Saturday, they have an excellent opportunity to prove that they belong in the title race. Going up against bitter rivals and the only undefeated team in the league in Juventus, Paulo Fonceca’s side will try to make a statement in front of their fans. 

Milan already had a few statement wins this season. Defeating Inter in gameweek 6 and beating Real Madrid on the road in their most recent Champions League fixture have them feeling confident ahead of this crucial clash. 

Juventus under new manager Thiago Motta hasn’t been the most convincing side but they are very solid defensively, registering nine clean sheets in 12 Serie A games so far. They have allowed only 8.7 expected goals against (xGA), miles ahead of the second-best defensive team in the league. 

This matchup also involves Timothy Weah and Weston McKennie going up against Christian Pulisic and Yunus Musah, adding an exciting wrinkle for American viewers. 

Milan vs. Juventus Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline:

Milan: +115
Draw: +230
Juventus: +240

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -102
Under 2.5: -118

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -134
No: +106

Double Chance: 

Milan or Draw: -320
Draw or Juventus: -160
Milan or Juventus: -310

Milan vs. Juventus How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024
• Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: San Siro, Milan, Italy
• How to Watch (TV): Paramount+, Fox Deportes

Milan vs. Juventus Prediction and Pick

Neither team ranks in the top five in Italy in goal chances created. They are not at the top of the league in terms of expected goals from open play as they are not the most creative and dangerous teams in possession. 

On the counter attack, however, both sides have lethal weapons. Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao for Milan, and Kenan Yildiz and Timothy Weah for Juventus are among the best players in the league combining speed, dribbling ability, and creativity. 

One area Juventus ranks at the top of the league is ball possession. By controlling possession over 60% of the time in almost every game, Juventus is able to dictate the tempo. Their central midfielder duo of Manuel Locatelli and Teun Koopmeiners have been excellent all season in that aspect. 

Milan has conceded 20 goals in 15 games so far this season. They only have four clean sheets across all competitions. Emerson Royal as the right back is a ticking time bomb against any solid opposition. Paulo Fonseca still hasn’t found his ideal center back pairing. Strahinja Pavlovic has been unconvincing since joining the team over the summer, especially struggling against athletic speedsters. 

Regardless of who starts between Pavlovic, Fikayo Tomori, Malick Thiaw, and Matteo Gabbia, Milan lacks an elite defensive leader. 

Therefore, it’s hard to imagine Juventus not being able to get on the score sheet. And once they take the lead, they are very hard to come back on. Milan will get chances on the counter when Juventus is in possession but they have to score the first goal to win this game. 

Juventus perhaps hasn’t hit the highs Milan has so far this season, but they have been the more consistent and better coached side. Even in the electric San Siro atmosphere, they have enough talent to come away with the win. 

Pick: Juventus +240

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.