Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

Reed Wallach | 5 Hours Ago

Oct 26, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) throws a pass during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Two teams jockeying for position in the competitive Big Ten meet in Champaign on Saturday afternoon.

Minnesota is winners of three straight games as the team has found its footing after a slow start to the season, and now will try to score a road win against a ranked foe in Illinois. The Fighting Illini are off a blowout loss to the top team in the country, Oregon, but will return home with its improved passing game to test the Golden Gophers secondary.

Minnesota is the road favorite, but is it justified?

Here’s our full betting preview.

Minnesota vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Minnesota: -3 (-108)
Illinois: +3 (-112)

Moneyline

Minnesota: -150
Illinois: +130

Total:

45 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Minnesota vs. Illinois How to Watch

Date: Saturday, November 2nd
Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Memorial Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
Minnesota Record: 5-3
Illinois Record: 6-2

Minnesota vs. Illinois Key Players to Watch

Minnesota

Max Brosmer: The New Hampshire transfer is playing at a high level for the Golden Gophers, completing nearly 70% of his passes with a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is off his best game of the season, passing for over 300 yards for the first time with four touchdown passes against Illinois.

Illinois

Luke Altmyer: Altmyer has had two quiet games in a row, but faced two of the best defenses in the nation in Michigan and Oregon. While Minnesota’s defense looks strong on the surface, the team hasn’t faced an elite passing game all too often this season, which the Fighting Illini have with Altmyer under center, ranking 40th in EPA/Pass over the balance of the season.

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

While I think Illinois is being overlooked as a home underdog, my preference in this game is on the over.

Both offenses have moved the ball nicely this season, and have avenues to attacking the other.

While Minnesota’s passing game has come alive with Brosmer under center, running back Darius Taylor is in for a big afternoon against a Fighting Illini defense that has struggled to contain the rush all season.

Illinois ranks 132nd in defensive line yards and 111th in EPA/Rush. Against a healthy Taylor, who is averaging nearly five yards per carry, I expect the Gophers to be playing from ahead of the sticks in this one.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has been aided by some good fortune this season, playing USC in a windstorm and avoiding any competent passing game to date. While Illinois has struggled against its elite competition through the air, this group can test an overrated Minnesota secondary.

It all stems from the Golden Gophers’ lack of pressure, ranking 71st in pass rush grade this season, per Pro Football Focus.

If Altmyer has time, he has been elite all year long. When he is kept clean, Altmyer is completing two-thirds of his passes with 14 touchdowns to only three interceptions. When he is under pressure, he is completing 50% of his passes with only one touchdown.

This total is not only underrating both offenses, but also each defense, and I like the game to get over the low number.

PICK: OVER 45