Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Astros are Road Dogs, Total Will Go Over in Jays-Red Sox)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the MLB action on Monday, Aug. 26.

Aug 23, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) celebrates with catcher Yainer Diaz (21) after hitting a two run home run against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the last week of August!

It's the dog days of summer, so what better way to kick off our week than take a road dog and a run total?

Let's root for some runs tonight on our way to a couple of wins!

All odds according to DraftKings.

MLB Best Bets Today for Monday, Aug. 26

• Astros ML (+145) vs. Phillies
• Blue Jays at Red Sox over 9 runs (-118)

Houston Astros ML +145 vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and it’s hard not to grab this plus-money action tonight on the road—even vs. the 76-win Philadelphia Phillies.

Both teams have been playing well recently, but the Astros have stood out since the All-Star Break with a 34-20 record since the All-Star Break.   

That includes a 13-6 record on the road. Houston reached 70 wins last night after defeating the Baltimore Orioles in game four of a four-game series. 

In that same period, the Phillies are 14-20 and just 5-7 at home. 

The Astros will start Ronel Blanco tonight. Blanco is not a high-K pitcher and allows too many walks and home runs, which will work against him. However, he also has the league's lowest .185 batting average against and a respectable 3.14 ERA. 

The Phillies will start Zack Wheeler, who is in the Cy Young conversation. He should be able to keep the Astros bats at bay, though all season, he has struggled vs. lefties. Yordan Alvarez has not played in the last few days while he has recovered from a stiff neck, but Joe Espada said he would have been available off the bench last night. We could see Alvarez and Jon Singleton have success tonight. 

The Astros also have the advantage when it comes to bullpens. Houston’s relievers pitched to a 2.96 ERA in August—the second-best in MLB—while the Phillies have a 4.07 ERA. The signing of Hector Neris helps fill the void of Ryan Pressly for the time being in Houston.

This game will be close, and I like the payout for the road dogs tonight. Houston is 14-12 as an away underdog this season. 

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox OVER 9 (-118)

It’s hard not to continue to pick on the Boston Red Sox bullpen, and with games at Fenway averaging 9.92 runs this season and 12.60 runs since the All-Star Break, I feel comfortable taking the over with the option to push at 9. 

Pivetta has struggled since the All-Star Break, with an ERA of 6.00. He’s also struggled more when at home this season with an ERA of 5.27. 

Berrios has an xERA in the bottom 13% of the league despite his 3.79 ERA. He also has an ERA of 4.91 on the road this season. 

Both bullpens are among the worst in baseball. They own the third and fourth-highest ERAs this season, with the Red Sox owning a 6.25 ERA in August.

Both teams have also hit well this month, with the Red Sox averaging 5.13 runs per game (4th) and the Jays averaging 4.73 (11th).

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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