Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Astros vs. Mariners, Diamondbacks vs. Giants F5)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the MLB action on Monday, Sept. 23.

Sep 17, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images / Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

There’s only four games on the slate tonight, and two could be consequential. 

The Houston Astros have yet to lock up the AL West, and the team that could play spoiler, the Seattle Mariners, is in Houston tonight.   

The Astros need just one win in this series to guarantee the AL West title.

Then, Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants tonight. Arizona would have a wild card berth if the season ended today, but with the Atlanta Braves just two games back, they can’t afford to lose.  Expect the bats to be out in that one, with a total set at 9. 

All odds today are courtesy of DraftKings.

MLB Best Bets Today for Monday, Sept. 23

• Mariners at Astros NRFI (-130)
• Mariners vs. Astros under 3.5 runs F5 (+125)
• Giants at Diamondbacks both teams to score 2+ runs F5 (+125)

Mariners vs. AstrosTotal Runs F5 under 3.5 (+125)

Hunter Brown gets the start at home for the Astros tonight. He has been stellar for Houston since the All Star Break, pitching to a 2.33 ERA.  His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the top 4% of MLB, and he’s striking batters out at a rate of more than nine per nine innings while allowing less than one home run  per nine. 

The Mariners have the MLB’s highest K-rate this season (27%). 

Brown has allowed just three runs to the Mariners across three starts this season (1.65 ERA). 

Bryce Miller has a 2.10 ERA since the All-Star Break, though he’s struggled at times on the road (4.44 away ERA). Miller has allowed six earned runs to the Astros in two starts this season (4.50 ERA).  However, with no Yordan Alvarez in the lineup tonight, he’ll have a slightly easier go of it early.   

I expect the Astros to win a close one tonight. 

Giants at Diamondbacks both teams to score 2+runs F5 (+125)

The Diamondbacks have averaged an MLB-best 4.10 runs per first five in September.  The Giants have averaged 2.37 (11th).

Hayden Birdsong starts for San Francisco. He has an ERA of 5.19 since the All-Star break and ERA of 5.55 when away this season.   

Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez starts for the D-Backs.  

He has a 6.05 ERA at  home this season, and  the Giants have a .731 OPS (10th) and 136 extra-base hits (eighth) vs. lefties this year.  

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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