Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Astros Will Sweep Dodgers)

Iain MacMillan | Jul 28, 2024

Jul 27, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) hits a walk-off home run during the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Don't let the Olympics distract you from the fact we have a loaded slate of MLB games to bet on today, including an afternoon showdown between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers.

If you find it hard to figure out which bets to place on such a busy schedule of games, let me help you out. I'm going to share with you my top three bets for today's action.

Let's dive into it.

MLB Best Bets Today

• Braves vs. Mets OVER 8 (-110) via Caesars Sportsbook
• Astros -125 vs. Dodgers via BetMGM Sportsbook
• Mariners vs. White Sox UNDER 7 (-115) via DraftKings Sportsbook

Braves vs. Mets Prediction

You may think the UNDER is the play based on today's pitching matchup between Reynaldo Lopez (2.12 ERA) and David Peterson (3.14 ERA), but I'm going to zig while everyone else zags.

Lopez's ERA is better than it should be based on his 3.17 FIP (Field Independent Pitching) along with his 1.19 WHIP. We could see some regression coming and it may have already begun. He has allowed 18 combined hits and seven combined earned runs in his last two starts. He has a tough matchup today in the Mets' offense which ranks third in OPS (.808) dating back to June 1.

There's no doubt the Braves' offense has been struggling of late, ranking 24th in OPS at .688 dating back to June 1, but their struggles have largely come against right-handed pitchers. Against lefties in the same time frame, they have an OPS of .771. The fact they're facing a lefty in David Peterson today should bode well for them.

I'm going to bet the OVER in this NL East showdown.

Pick: Braves vs. Mets OVER 8 (-110)

Dodgers vs. Astros Prediction

River Ryan allowed zero earned run in his first career start when the Dodgers faced the Giants earlier this week, but that metric is extremely deceiving in this case. The young arm also allowed four hits, three balls, and one unearned run which equals a FIP of 4.08. There's a strong chance he allows some runs today against a solid Astros lineup.

There's no doubting Spencer Arrighetti has been hot and cold for the Astros, but his ERA has steadily improved since the disastrous start to his season. His FIP of 4.36 shows there's further positive regression to come.

I'll back the Astros as home favorites in this interleague matchup.

Pick: Astros -125 vs. Dodgers

Mariners vs. White Sox Prediction

We all know how bad the White Sox offense has been. They rank dead last in OPS dating back to June 1 by a significant margin at .634. The next worse team is the Los Angeles Angels at .651.

What you might not know is how bad the Mariners offense has been as well. They're fifth-last in OPS (.680) in that same time frame but they're also batting just .212, which is the worst mark in Major League Baseball, even worse than the White Sox.

The White Sox are also putting one of their better pitchers on the mound today in Garrett Crochet (3.07 ERA). A matchup between him and Bryce Miller (3.41 ERA) of the Mariners has all the makings of a pitchers duel.

Pick: Mariners vs. White Sox UNDER 7 (-115)

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