Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Back the Blue Jays as Home Dogs vs. the Yankees)

Breaking down the best bets to place in Major League Baseball on Friday, June 28.

Jun 27, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder George Springer (right), designated hitter Justin Turner (2) and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (center) celebrate at home plate after they scored on Springer's home run against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees no longer have the best record in baseball or the lead in the AL East.  

They are the better team tonight, but will they play like it?

I’ll be backing the Blue Jays as home underdogs tonight for plus-money. Here’s why. 

MLB Best Bets Today

Toronto Blue Jays ML (+100) at DraftKings

I’m not making this pick because the Yankees got shelled by the Jays last night or because they have lost eight of their last 10.

I’m making this pick because of how poorly the Yankees play vs. left-handed pitching.  Just last week, we saw the New York Mets sweep the Yankees in no small part because they pushed back Luis Severino and instead started lefties David Peterson and Sean Manaea (apologies to Grimace, who probably wants the credit).

Though the Yankees are first overall in OPS when facing right-handed pitching (.779), they are 15th vs. lefties (.707).  The Yankees are slugging just .337 (18th) and batting just .235 (21st) when facing southpaws.

The Blue Jays will be starting lefty Yusei Kikuchi tonight at home. Kikuchi has an ERA of 4.00 this season with an xERA of 3.89, according to Statcast. 

Kikuchi has struggled in his last two starts, but this could be the matchup that gets him back on track. When Kikuchi faced the Yankees in April, he allowed just one run on four hits while striking out nine.  Aaron Judge is hitting just .179 career vs. Kikuchi. 

Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Yankees on the road. Stroman’s max exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 2% of the league, and his xERA is 4.40, according to Statcast. Look for Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. to remain hot at the dish tonight. 

With an impressive average of 6.67 runs per game across the last three, the Blue Jays have been on a scoring spree. In contrast, the Yankees have managed only 3.33 runs per game. 

I love a home underdog. Give me the plus-money payout for the Jays to log the win. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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