Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Back Orioles as Road Dogs, NRFI for White Sox-Giants)

Breaking down the best bets to place in Major League Baseball for the action on Monday, Aug. 19.

Aug 18, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) celebrates with first baseman Ryan O'Hearn (32) after hitting a home run during the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports / Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Monday!   

There are 10 games on the MLB slate today, and plenty of ways to get in on the action. Here are a couple of wagers we are targeting tonight.  

All odds according to DraftKings.

MLB Best Bets Today for Monday, Aug. 19

• Baltimore Orioles ML (+120)
• White Sox at Giants NRFI (-125)

Baltimore Orioles ML (+120) vs. New York Mets

It’s not often we get the option to take the Baltimore Orioles as underdogs, so we are going to grab the chance tonight against the New York Mets.

The Orioles have a 36-24 road record this season and are 43-27 vs. teams above .500.  Meanwhile, the Mets are just 33-32 at home and 25-35 vs. teams above .500.  

Baltimore will start Trevor Rogers tonight, and on the surface that gives them a big disadvantage. The lefty has struggled this season, and especially since the All-Star Break. Since the break he has an ERA of 5.55 while allowing hitters a .330 batting average. That is not good.   

His xERA and exit velocity allowed are in the bottom 9% percent of MLB.

New York will start lefty David Peterson, which could line up nicely for the O's.

Peterson has a 2.97 ERA since the All-Star Break, allowing just a .222 batting average to opposing hitters. However, taking a peek under the hood, Peterson could be due for regression. Peterson’s xERA is in the bottom 7% of the league, which is even higher than Rogers', and his exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 20% of the league. 

It’s far from a sure thing that he can keep this Orioles team that’s scored the sixth-most runs since the All Star Break at bay. 

Both teams are strong vs. left-handed pitching. The Orioles and Mets are top-five in OPS and both teams are hitting .260 (tied for seventh) vs. southpaws. However, the Orioles lead MLB in SLG vs. lefties and they are seventh in ISO as compared to the Mets in fourteenth. 

The Mets have the bullpen and home advantage, too. So, yes, they should be favorites. But, for +120, I’m willing to bet the Orioles can pull this one off in Queens.  

Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-125)

The Chicago White Sox were officially eliminated from playoff contention this weekend, and they have scored an MLB-worst 3.10 runs per game this season.  

They have also only scored 18% of the time in the first inning. 

San Francisco Giants pitcher Kyle Harrison has a home ERA of just 3.64, and a first inning ERA of 4.29, but that’s good enough for me to trust him against an anemic offense. 

The Giants have scored just 4.08 runs per game in August, which is the ninth-fewest in MLB, and they are also not prone to scoring early.  

San Francisco has scored in the first inning just 23% of the time this season. Jonathan Cannon will start for the White Sox tonight, and he has been good since the All Star Break with an ERA of just 3.34.    

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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