Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Braves Team Total, Nationals/Pirates NRFI)

Breaking down the best bets to place in Major League Baseball for Thursday, Sept. 5.

Sep 3, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Gio Urshela (9) celebrates with right fielder Jorge Soler (2) after scoring a run against the Colorado Rockies in the third inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

It’s a smaller MLB slate today, but there are still plenty of ways to get in on the action. 

I like the Atlanta Braves tonight at home, but there’s little value in the moneyline or run line plays, so we are going to look at some different angles.  

We are also going to bet that the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates continue to slump early in games tonight.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves Best Bets

• Rockies at Braves under 8 (-110)
• Braves Team Total over 1.5 runs F3 (+100)
• Braves team total over 3.5 runs F7 (-130)

I’m backing the under in this game even though Braves’ bats excel vs. left-handed pitching.   

Reynaldo Lopez gets the start for Atlanta at home, where he has been stellar. Lopez has a home ERA of just 1.72 this season. Even though his xERA is higher according to Statcast, its unlikely this Rockies team that has scored just 3.54 runs per game on the road this season and just 3.07 runs per game since Aug. 1, will be able to break through.

The Braves bullpen should be able to hold up their end, too.

Lefty Austin Gomber starts for the Rockies. This  Braves team is top five in OPS, SLG and home runs (51) vs. left-handed pitching.  The Rockies bullpen has an ERA of 5.53 since Aug. 1.  

This game sets up to be lopsided, and I like the Braves to go over their team totals, but the game to stay under. The Braves have averaged 2.29 runs per game in the first three innings and 4.37 runs per game in the first seven innings since Aug. 1.  

It’s a fine line, but let’s take a walk on the wild side. Pick and choose from a couple of the bets above!

Nationals at Pirates NRFI (-120)

Since Aug. 1, the Pirates have scored just eight runs in the first inning. 

Over that same stretch, the Nationals have scored just three runs in first innings when away.

These two teams lead the league in NRFI for the season. The Nationals have not scored in the first inning 81% of the time this season, while the Pirates have not scored 80% of the time.

Could this be the day one of them breaks through? Maybe. But, I’m not willing to bet on it. These two teams are bottom six in total runs scored since Aug. 1. Let’s play the odds and take the under here. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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