Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Brewers ML, Jose Altuve Bases Prop)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB playoff action on Tuesday, Oct. 1.

Sep 13, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) runs after hitting a single against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Is it crazy to fade the New York Mets after their incredible win which guaranteed their playoff berth on Monday afternoon?  

Maybe. But, I’m going to do it anyway.

Let's dive into some postseason wagers!

All odds according to DraftKings.

MLB Best Bets Today for Tuesday, Oct. 1

Milwaukee Brewers ML -140 

The Mets will be tired after a double-header and a flight back to Milwaukee where they lost two of three over the weekend, scoring nine total runs in the three-game series.  They didn’t see Freddy Peralta in that series, who gets the start for the Brewers at home today. 

Peralta has a 3.06 ERA since the All-Star Break, and he has a 1.50 ERA in his only start vs. the Mets this season. He faced 19 Mets on March 29, allowing just a .056 batting average with his only run allowed a home run from Starling Marte. 

Mets hitters are hitting just a combined career .200 vs. Peralta.  

The Mets will start Luis Severino. Severino has a 4.11 ERA since the All-Star Break and a 5.00 ERA on the road this year. In his single start vs. the Brewers on March 30, he allowed six hits, three earned runs and a .407 batting average. 

The Brewers’ bullpen ERA (3.11) was second only to the Guardians this year, while the Mets were  middle of the pack (4.03).

You’ve heard what they say: defense wins championships. The Brewers are at home on more rest with a pitching advantage. 

Let’s back the home team.

Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases (+130)

It’s time for Playoff Altuve. 

I expect this to be a low-scoring affair with two aces on the mound, but the Astros should be able to breakthrough with the Detroit Tigers bullpen. 

Altuve has four hits in 11 at-bats vs. Tarik Skubal. Three of those were extra-base hits.  

If he can’t get to Skubal, he’ll get a shot at the bullpen. The Tigers bullpen has a 7.56 ERA vs. the Astros this season. Altuve hit .299 at home this season with 13 home runs and 21 doubles, and he’s hitting .273 with 48 extra-base hits across 103 post-season career games. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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