Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Can Pirates Cover? Plus, Fade Nestor Cortes)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Tuesday, Aug. 13.

Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB postseason is approaching, and every team in the hunt is looking to close out the regular season strong – especially when they’re facing a team that’s also in the race. 

That’s the case for the Kansas City Royals and starter Seth Lugo on Tuesday, as they look to avenge Monday’s loss to the Minnesota Twins to keep pace in the AL wild card race and the AL Central division. 

Lugo is one of my favorite prop picks for today’s MLB slate, but there is also a run line play that I’m eyeing in the National League. 

With every MLB team in action, here’s how to bet on Tuesday’s action in today’s edition of Walk Off Wagers. 

MLB Best Bets Today for Tuesday, Aug. 13

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Seth Lugo OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-180)
• Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-122) vs. San Diego Padres
• Nestor Cortes OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+110)

Seth Lugo OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-180)

All season long, Kansas City Royals righty Seth Lugo has been impressive, posting a 2.72 ERA across 24 outings, leading the Royals to a 14-10 record in those games. 

Lugo – a former reliever – has shown an ability to go deep into matchups, pitching six or more innings in 20 of his 24 outings. So, the fact that he’s set at just 17.5 outs recorded on Tuesday is pretty shocking.

Earlier this season, Lugo made a pair of starts against the Twins, going six innings in both of them while allowing a combined eight hits and just one earned run. The Twins do rank sixth in the league in OPS, which makes them a tough matchup, but Lugo has been lights out against the Royals’ division rival in 2024. 

I’ll take a shot on him to get through six innings again, especially since he’s done so more than 80 percent of the time this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-122) vs. San Diego Padres

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in trouble.

They’re now in last place in the NL Central after dropping their eighth consecutive game on Monday night, but I’m going to bet on them to cover the run line on Tuesday against the San Diego Padres.

Pittsburgh comes into this game with the second-best record in MLB on the run line (66-52), and it has thrived on the road (37-23) when it comes to covering. Now, the Pirates aren’t winning games as of late, but they aren’t getting blown out either.

Over this eight-game losing streak, the Pirates have five losses by one run, including three of them against this Padres team. 

With the Pirates set as massive underdogs against Michael King and company tonight, I can’t help but take them to at least cover here. Not only will Pittsburgh eventually pick up a win, but it has played an insane 43 games that were decided by one run or less in 2024. 

Buy low on the Buccos on Tuesday. 

Nestor Cortes OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+110)

New York Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. has been awful as of late, posting a 7.67 ERA over his last six starts – dating back to the start of July. 

The Yankees aren’t good in Cortes’ starts overall this season, going 8-16 straight up, and they’re coming off a horrible showing in a loss to the Chicago White Sox on Monday.

The White Sox put up 12 runs in that win, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the league’s worst offense get to Cortes, who has allowed 39 hits and 10 walks in his last 29.1 innings of work. 

Cortes has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, so getting this prop at plus money feels like a no-brainer, even though the Chicago offense hasn’t been good in 2024.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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