Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Freddy Peralta Prop to Bet; Trust Mariners on Road)

Breaking down the best bets to take in Major League Baseball for the action on Monday, June 24.

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB season rolls on as we get closer and closer to the All-Star break, and there are a few bets I’m looking to make on a shortened slate on Monday. 

I’m eyeing two right-handed starters on Monday and their strikeout props, as Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta and Philadelphia Phillies star Aaron Nola both could be in line to put up big K numbers. 

Plus, there is a moneyline underdog that I believe has some sneaky value on Monday night. 

Let’s break down these picks to kick off the week in baseball!

MLB Best Bets Today

• Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
• Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-108) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
• Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-165)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Peralta has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball this season, ranking in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, averaging 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

He gets a matchup with the Texas Rangers on Monday, who average just 7.57 strikeouts per game this season, but that still gives Peralta some leeway at his current K number.

Over his 15 starts, Peralta has cleared 5.5 K’s 12 times, and he only has one start (a game he lasted just 3.1 innings) where he finished with fewer than five strikeouts. 

That gives us a solid floor to lean on when it comes to this prop, and I expect Peralta’s season-long strikeout prowess to shine even against a tough offense. 

Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-108) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The Seattle Mariners are holding a solid lead in the AL West entering Monday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are just fourth in the AL East. 

Can Seattle pull off a road win?

I believe so. 

Bryan Woo gets the ball for the Mariners in this matchup, and he’s led the Mariners to a 6-1 record in his seven outings this season. 

The righty has not allowed more than three runs in a single start this season, posting a 1.67 ERA and 2.83 Fielding Independent Pitching. 

I think that gives him a huge edge over Tampa Bay starter Taj Bradley, who comes into this start with a 4.06 ERA in eight outings. The Rays are 4-4 this season when Bradley is on the mound. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS, so I’ll gladly trust the better starter on Monday night. 

Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-165)

The strikeout numbers haven't been what you’d expect from Nola this season (he’s in the 52nd percentile in strikeout percentage), but I like him to clear his prop against the Detroit Tigers on Monday. 

Detroit averages 8.84 strikeouts per game (22nd in Major League Baseball), which means Nola doesn’t have to lead this offense to more K’s than normal – like Peralta may have to – to clear this prop. 

Nola is coming off a six-strikeout game, and he’s cleared this prop in four of his last eight games. 

I wouldn’t call this my favorite prop of the night, but the Tigers have struggled enough at avoiding the punchout that I’ll bet on Nola to clear this number.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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