Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Orioles Return to Form, Mets/Angels OVER/UNDER)

Jennifer Piacenti | Aug 2, 2024

Jul 30, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (35) celebrates with shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) after scoring during the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

We've got a full slate of MLB games to wager on heading into the weekend and I'm targeting three bets, including one with a plus-money payout. Despite a mediocre run of play recently, the Orioles remain one of the most profitable bets in baseball and I'll be targeting their game against the Guardians as well as Mets-Angels for my Friday bets.

All odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best MLB Bets Today

Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+124)
Over 9 (-122)

The Guardians gave the Orioles a good old-fashioned butt-kicking last night, winning at home 10-3.  Tonight, I expect the tables to turn.

The Orioles have been the much hotter-hitting team coming out of the All-Star Break, averaging 5.86 runs per game across the last two weeks of play (fifth in MLB), while the Guardians have averaged just 3.62 (T-26th).   

Carlos Carrasco starts at home for the Guardians tonight. He has an ERA of 5.68 this season, and in the 42 innings he has pitched at home this season, he has allowed opponents a .307 batting average and .564 SLG. Those numbers are even more elevated vs. right-handed batters -- 337 BA and .663 SLG. Look for Anthony Santander and Adley Rutschman (switch) to contribute at the plate.

Dean Kremer has been far better on the road than at home, posting a 3.08 ERA away this season and allowing hitters just a .174 average. That being said, Kremer’s underlying metrics suggest he could give up some knocks to the Guardians tonight, so I am also backing the over on the game total of nine.  

This year, games featuring the Orioles have gone over the listed total a league-leading 60.4% of the time, and they have covered the run line 53.6% of the time (6th).

Mets/Angels over 9 (-110)

Games at Angel Stadium have averaged 9.14 runs this season and 9.57 runs since the All-Star Break.

Lefty Tyler Anderson gets the start at home tonight. His season ERA is just 2.96, but according to Statcast, that should be much closer to 4.17. That presents an opportunity for the Mets, who mash vs. lefties. They are top four in MLB in SLG, OPS, and ISO vs. southpaws. They have averaged 4.69 runs per game since the All-Star Break.

Paul Blackburn will get his first start with the Mets, but the Angels are familiar with the righty since he spent most of his career with the Oakland A’s. In his single start against the Angels this year (last week), he allowed four earned runs and a .632 SLG. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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