Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (How to Bet Yankees-Blue Jays, Plus Corbin Burnes Prop)

Breaking down the best bets to place in Major League Baseball on Thursday, June 27.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday brings a shorter Major League Baseball slate than usual, but that’s not going to stop us from getting some bets in.

There are still tons of prop bets, sides and total that we can consider on June 27, but I’m focusing mainly in the prop market with two starting pitchers that I believe are a little undervalued tonight. 

Plus, with the New York Yankees struggling, how should we bet their matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays?

Let’s break it all down for Thursday’s MLB action. 

MLB Best Bets Today

• New York Yankees-Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8 (-108)
• Jack Flaherty OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
• Corbin Burnes OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+120)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

New York Yankees-Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8 (-108)

The Yankees are struggling as of late, giving up seven or more runs in five of their last seven games, and they enter tonight’s matchup with the Blue Jays on a three-game skid. 

Carlos Rodon gets the ball for New York, and he’s struggled as of late, allowing five runs in five innings against the Boston Red Sox before an eight-run disaster in 3.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves. 

The lefty’s ERA has spiked to 3.86 on the season (he also has a 4.40 FIP), and he’s not the only starter to worry about on Thursday. 

Toronto righty Jose Berrios has also struggled in recent outings, allowing nine runs in his last 11 innings (two starts). While he has a 3.43 ERA on the season, Berrios could be due for regression due to his scary 4.99 FIP. 

I expect offenses to reign supreme in this one, especially with New York hitting the OVER at the 10th-highest rate in baseball this season. The Yankees have finished with nine or more combined runs in six of their last seven games and nine of their last 11 dating back to their series with Boston earlier this month. 

Jack Flaherty OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Jack Flaherty has turned his career around this season, posting a 2.92 ERA and a 2.70 Fielding Independent Pitching, including four straight starts where he’s allowed one or fewer runs. 

I’m focused on his strikeouts against the Angels, who rank 17th in Major League Baseball in strikeouts per game (8.41). 

Flaherty comes into this starting in the 95th percentile in Major League Baseball in both strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, and he’s cleared 6.5 punchouts in eight of his 14 starts. 

While Flaherty has fallen short of this prop in two starts in June, he also hasn’t worked more than six innings in any of them. Earlier in the season, he was pretty consistently recording at least 18 outs, doing so in 10 of his first 11 outings.

I’ll bet on him bouncing back against a weak lineup on Thursday. 

Corbin Burnes OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+120)

A little plus-money prop bet to close out today’s best bets?

That’s what I have for Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes, who has been pitching extremely well this season with a 2.35 ERA and 8-3 record. 

Burnes has been going deep into games as of late, pitching at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. 

While he’s only recorded 19 or more outs in six of his 16 outings this season (a reason why this prop is at plus money), Burnes has been ultra efficient as of late, not even reaching 100 pitches in any of his three starts with 7.0 innings pitched this month. 

He now takes on a Texas Rangers team that puts the ball in play often, ranking sixth in the league in strikeouts per game. 

That’s a good sign for Burnes, as opponents are hitting just .209 against him this season. The Orioles ace is also posting his best hard hit percentage of his career (30.4 percent) in the 2024 season. 

I’ll ride the hot hand and back this Burnes prop on Thursday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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