Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (How to Bet Mets vs. Braves Game 1)

Breaking down the best bets for the final day of the MLB regular season with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves fighting for playoff spots.

Sep 24, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach (56) throws against the New York Mets in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

We have a bonus Monday double-header to determine the final NL Wild Card spots before the postseason officially starts on Tuesday, so of course we want to get in on the action!

Currently, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are tied for the second wild card spot, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are on the outside looking in at just one percentage point back. If either the Mets or the Braves sweep, the D-backs will get a bid.  If the series is split, the three teams will end in a three-way tie, but the Diamondbacks will end up the odd man out, as they lost their season series to both the Mets and Braves. 

The Braves will host the Mets for both contests today. As you can guess, both teams will be highly motivated to win. 

The second game of the double-header will start 40 minutes after the first one ends.

If you’re an Arizona fan, remember, you’re rooting for whomever wins the first game. Speaking of the first game, here’s how I’m betting on it.

All odds according to DraftKings. 

MLB Best Bets Today for Mets vs. Braves

• Mets at Braves NRFI (-130)
• Braves ML (-155)
• Neither team to score 5+ runs (+140)

Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start at home for the Braves.  Schwellenbach has dominated the Mets this season, allowing just one earned run in two starts vs. New York this season (0.64 ERA) while striking out 15.  He has a 2.88 ERA since the All-Star Break

Tylor Megill has been solid for the Mets this season. He has just a 2.70 ERA since the All-Star Break, though he has struggled a bit more when not at home this season. In his only start vs. the Braves this season (July 21), he allowed four earned runs (6.00 ERA), but that was some time ago. Megill has just a 1.80 across four starts in September. 

Both bullpens have been a little shaky over the last two weeks, but the Mets have been slightly better. Braves relievers have an ERA of 4.69 across the last two weeks, though for the season they have been among the best in MLB. I am willing to trust them this afternoon. 

Both teams have averaged just about 4.5 runs per game this month.  The Braves are 45-32 at home this season. The Mets are 42-37 when away.

This game is practically a coin flip, but I’m giving the nod to the home team. I think they will win by a small margin.  They will have the rest advantage as they just finished a home stand vs. the Kansas City Royals and the Mets will be flying in from a series in Milwaukee. 

With the total set at just 7.5, I’m also going to take a bet that neither team gets to five runs tomorrow in plus money.   

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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