Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Padres stay Hot vs. Dodgers in NLDS Game 3)

Jennifer Piacenti | Oct 8, 2024

Oct 1, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King (34) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves during the fifth inning in game one of the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

All four Divisional Series’ are tied at 1-1.

Does it get any better than this?

The NLDS continues today, and we’ll be betting on the Padres to stay hot at home. We chased both of our Walk Off Wagers yesterday. Let’s try to keep the streak alive. 

All odds according to DraftKings. 

Best MLB Bets Today for Tuesday, Oct. 8

• Padres ML (-150) 
• Will Smith under .5 hits (+130)

This is heavily juiced, but for a good reason.  Not only are the Padres at home and riding the momentum of a 10-2 stomping at Chavez Ravine on Sunday, they have a major advantage at starting pitcher.

Michael King gets the start for the Friars tonight. King has an ERA of just 2.95 this season, which includes a 2.15 ERA since the All Star Break. His 85.7 exit velocity allowed is in the 99th percentile of MLB, and he allowed just .88 home runs per nine innings during the regular season, all while striking out more than ten batters per nine innings.

In his Wild Card postseason start, he pitched seven innings and struck out 12 Atlanta Braves. 

The Dodgers have hit just .196 vs. King this season. In four games started, King’s ERA is 3.10 vs. Los Angeles. 

Walker Buehler starts for the Dodgers. Buehler has an ERA of 5.38 this season and his strikeout-rate is in the bottom 16% of MLB. Buehler has allowed 1.91 home runs per nine innings this season- nearly twice the rate of King -- and he’s punched out just about seven batters per nine innings. 

In two starts vs. the Padres this season, Buehler has allowed a .294 batting average and has an ERA of 4.10. 

The Dodgers’ bullpen has an ERA of 5.59 in its two postseason games.   Padres relievers have an ERA of 3.21. All arms should be rested for today’s matchup, but the momentum will be with the Padres at home. 

These teams have met up 15 times in 2024. The Padres have won 10 of those contests.

Bet on the favorites tonight, and since you know how much I love plus money props, I’m also going to bet WIll Smith goes hitless tonight.

Smith is hitting just .182 across 11 career at-bats vs. King, and he’s yet to tally a hit in the postseason.  Post All-Star Break, Smith hit just .206. He’s batting sixth in this lineup so he’ll get fewer chances, too. 

The Picks: Padres ML -150 and Will Smith under .5 hits (+130)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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