Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Paul Skenes K Prop and More Bets for Cardinals/Pirates Today)

Breaking down the best bets for Tuesday's MLB action, featuring a prop for Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star Paul Skenes.

Jul 11, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Paul Skenes Day! 

That means we have to make a few bets on the Pittsburgh Pirates.  And, as luck would have it, we are getting even money for Skenes -- who is the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year and has the third-best odds for NL Cy Young -- to go over his strikeout prop. 

Of course, we have to take it.

MLB Best Bets Today for Tuesday, July 23

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Paul Skenes over 7.5 strikeouts (+100) at DraftKings 

If you haven’t heard of Paul Skenes, you’ve probably been living under a rock.  

The rookie flamethrower has an ERA of just 1.90 across his first 11 starts and he is striking batters out with his triple digit fastball and signature “splinker” at a rate of more than 12 per nine innings. Not only that, he’s made it through seven innings in three of his last four starts -- the last of which was a no-hitter. 

Skenes faced the Cardinals on June 11 in St. Louis, and he allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out eight. He’s exceeded this prop in eight of his eleven starts this year, and he’ll have the home crowd on his side today.  

Let’s have fun and root for some whiffs. 

St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-125)

We took this bet yesterday, and it cashed for us,  so we are playing it again today. 

I’ve already raved about Skenes and his low ERA, in his eleven starts, Skenes has allowed just three first-inning runs. That should fare well vs. the Cardinals who have only scored in the first inning 21% of the time this season.  

On the other side, the Pirates have it a little easier vs. Lance Lynn, who has a terrible first inning ERA. However, after some rest from the All-Star Break, I expect Lynn will look a little better in the first inning vs. a Pirates team that has only scored 20% of the time in first innings this season. 

Neither team to tally 5 or more runs (+145)

This one is a fun one. The game total today is set at 7.5, and I like this game total to stay low. The Pirates have the advantage at starting pitcher, while the Cardinals have the advantage in relief.

I’ll bet each team relies on their best arms to keep this total low. For the season, the Pirates have averaged 4.16 runs per game, but just 3.96 runs per game when at home.

The Cardinals have averaged 4.13 runs per game when away this season, and facing Skenes is a tough draw.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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