Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Pirates/Cardinals NRFI, Framber Valdez K Prop)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the Major League Baseball action on Wednesday, Sept. 18.

Sep 12, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) delivers a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Happy Hump Day!  Football season is in full swing, but you didn't forget about MLB- that's why you're here!  We are looking forward to cashing some bets with you today!

Here are two of my favorite plays for Wednesday's slate—all odds according to DraftKings. 

MLB Best Bets Today for Wednesday, Sept. 18

Pirates at Cardinals NRFI (-125)

We played this prop yesterday and it cashed, so we are going to play it again.

The Pirates have not scored in the first inning when away 84% of the time this season, and the Cardinals have not scored in the first inning when at home 79% of the time.

Sonny Gray starts for St. Louis. He has just a 3.67 ERA in the first inning this season and a 2.54 ERA at home. We will trust him vs. the Pirates, averaging just 3.56 runs per game this month. 

We don't know who is starting for the Pirates today, but Jake Woodford is expected to start. The point is, though, that it doesn't matter too much. The Cardinals are averaging just 3.73 runs per game this month and struggle to score in the first when at home. 

Framber Valdez under 4.5 K (+125)

This is a little bold, but hear me out.

We already know at least one batter Valdez will be unable to strike out: Luis Arraez. We also know that the Padres have the MLB's lowest K-rate this year (17.6%). 

That number is even lower vs. left-handed pitching (16.8%).

Valdez is a ground ball pitcher. His 60.5% ground ball rate is the highest among qualified starters.  The Padres have grounded into the most double-plays in MLB this season (129).  The Astros have turned a league-best 30 double plays in Valdez's starts. 

The riskiest part of this bet is that Valdez will pitch too deep into the game to stay under five strikeouts. For the plus-money payout, though, I'm willing to take the risk. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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