Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today Plus-Money Pitcher Strikeout Props to Target (Framber Valdez and Nick Pivetta)

Strikeout props for the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox starting pitchers.

May 14, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Hump Day!  It’s a great day for an entire day of major league baseball. 

If you want to get in on the action, I’ve found a couple of appealing plus-money strikeout props for you to consider: one for the afternoon and one for the evening slate. 

Let’s have some fun!  

MLB Best Bets Today

Framber Valdez under 4.5 K (+120) at San Francisco Giants

Jun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants' low strikeout rate has me looking at the under on Framber's K-prop today. The Giants have a 21.3% K-rate this season, resulting in an average of eight strikeouts per game. That K-rate drops even further to 20% when they face lefties. 

Framber Valdez pitched a complete game in his last outing, punching out eight Los Angeles Angels.  That's likely why we're getting good plus-money today for this under, even though Framber's 63.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starters with 40+ innings pitched and he is striking out batters at just seven per nine innings. 

Framber is averaging five strikeouts per game this season, so this isn't without risk, but the payout is appealing. He has gone under this prop in five of 10 starts this season. 

Nick Pivetta over 5.5 K (+105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Am I wrong, or is Nick Pivetta consistently under-appreciated? 

Pivetta is striking batters out at nearly 11 per nine, and his walk rate is among the best in the league.   That strikeout rate is even better when he is pitching at Fenway.  Pivetta has a K-rate of 12.23 at home this year.  

Philadelphia is not a high K-rate team, striking out just 20.4% of the time vs. righties this year (eighth-best in MLB), but historically, Pivetta has struck out this Phillies lineup at a rate of 26.8%, according to Statcast. 

Pivetta has exceeded this prop in five of eight starts this season, including four of his last five.  I'll take the value and bet he gets to six today. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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