Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Prediction for Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 3)

Jennifer Piacenti | Oct 16, 2024

Oct 14, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) reacts with outfielder Tyrone Taylor (15) after game two of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images / Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

We went 1-1 yesterday cashing our +210 Jose Ramirez prop. Our hot streak rolls on!

Let’s make a pick in tonight’s Los Angeles Dodgers-New York Mets matchup.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets Today for NLCS Game 3

Dodgers at Mets over 7.5 runs (-115)

I don’t trust Walker Buehler.   

Buehler had an ERA of 5.38 during the regular season and his strikeout-rate was in the bottom 16% of MLB. Buehler allowed 1.91 home runs per nine innings this season- and he’s punched out just about seven batters per nine innings. 

In the postseason, his ERA 10.80. He’s allowed six earned runs across just five innings pitched.

Sure, the Dodgers can go to their bullpen early, but I’m not convinced that will be enough to keep this score low vs. a Mets team that is averaging 5.00 runs per game in the postseason.

On the other side, the Dodgers are averaging 5.14 runs per game, and they should be able to put up a few vs. Severino,  who has allowed six earned runs across 12 innings pitched in the postseason for a 4.50 ERA.

The Mets bullpen has blown two saves this season, and that could mean we even get runs in the bottom of the ninth. 

The Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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