Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Prediction for Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1)

Breaking down how to bet the New York Mets-Los Angeles Dodgers matchup in Game 1 of the NLCS.

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The NLCS gets under way on Sunday with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the New York Mets after taking down the San Diego Padres in Game 5 on Friday.

Los Angeles’ pitching staff stepped up in a big way at the end of the series against San Diego, holding the Padres scoreless in both Game 4 and Game 5 to secure the series. 

Now, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and company have to take on a red-hot New York team that eliminated the Philadelphia Phillies in just four games.

New York is starting Kodai Senga, who made just one regular season appearance, in Game 1 of this series. Senga has pitched once in the playoffs, throwing two innings of one-hit, one-run ball in Game 1 against Philadelphia.

The Dodgers counter with Jack Flaherty, who was acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline.

In the regular season with Los Angeles, Flaherty posted a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts, leading the Dodgers to a 7-3 record over that stretch. He struggled a bit in Game 2 of the NLDS, allowing five hits, four runs and two homers in 5.1 innings. 

The Dodgers ended up losing that game 10-2, so they’re hoping that Flaherty can bounce back in this series opener on Sunday.

Here’s a breakdown of my best bet for this matchup. 

MLB Best Bets Today for Sunday, Oct. 13

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Mets-Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8 (-115)

New York Mets-Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8 (-115)

New York has played seven playoff games so far in 2024, and five of them have finished with eight or more combined runs. 

I’m worried about New York’s bullpen having to work several innings again with Senga on the mound after he threw just two innings in Game 1 against Philly.

So far this postseason, the Mets have a 4.01 bullpen ERA – right around where they finished the regular season (4.04 bullpen ERA). 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ pitching staff finally seemed to find a groove at the end of the NLDS, but can it slow down this Mets lineup?

New York has gotten clutch hit after clutch hit in the postseason – and on the run to the postseason – and it hasn’t shown any signs of stopping. 

The Dodgers went OVER eight runs in three of their games in the NLDS, landing on exactly eight runs in one game and going UNDER in just one game. 

For the season, Los Angeles is the No. 3 OVER team in baseball, hitting it at 57.1 percent clip (92-69-6). The Mets have hit the OVER at a 52.4 percent clip (86-78-5) in 2024. 

I think we can expect plenty of runs with this pitching matchup on Sunday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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