Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Marlins vs. Braves, Aaron Judge, Corbin Burnes)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the MLB action on Sunday, April 6, including an intriguing upset pick.

The Marlins are a sneaky underdog bet on Sunday. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Sunday’s MLB action features a ton of afternoon games, including the series finale between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies and a Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox. 

As teams get through their second turn in their pitching rotations, it’s going to be a little easier (we can hope as bettors) to find advantages when betting on Major League Baseball. 

On Sunday, there are a few plays that I’m eyeing, including an upset pick in an NL East matchup and a player prop for New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each of the best for Sunday’s action. 

MLB Best Bets for Sunday, April 6

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-108) vs. Texas Rangers
• Corbin Burnes OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
• Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
• Miami Marlins Moneyline (+130) vs. Atlanta Braves

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-108) vs. Texas Rangers

The Tampa Bay Rays may be massively undervalued on Sunday afternoon in a clash with the Texas Rangers.

Texas is off to a solid 7-2 start to the season, but it has rookie Kumar Rocker on the mound in this one, and he was blasted in his 2025 debut. Rocker allowed seven hits and six earned runs across three innings of work in a 14-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds.

On top of that, Rocker was knocked around in Spring Training, posting a 9.00 ERA in 13 innings of work, giving up 18 hits in the process.

On Sunday, the Rays have Drew Rasmussen on the mound, and he’s coming off five innings of two-hit ball in a win in his first outing. The Rays also are one spot ahead of the Rangers in bullpen ERA, so they fully have the pitching advantage in this game.

As slight road underdogs, I think the Rays are undervalued this afternoon. 

Corbin Burnes OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

There isn’t a better matchup for Arizona Diamondbacks ace Corbin Burnes than the one he has on Sunday.

Burnes is taking on the Washington Nationals, who are averaging an MLB-high 11.13 strikeouts per game this season. 

After leading MLB in K’s in the 2022 season, Burners registered 200 punchouts in 193.2 innings in 2023 and 181 K’s in 194.1 innings last season. This season, he’s already registered eight K’s in 4.1 innings in just one outing. 

I think Burnes will cruise past this number against a strikeout-prone Washington lineup. 

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge is putting on a clinic to start the season, posting a slash line of .364/.447/1.000 across eight games. The Yankees are off to a solid 6-2 start because of it.

On Sunday, Judge is taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates and lefty Andrew Heaney – a fly-ball pitcher – who has been extremely prone to giving up homers in his career. While I’m not betting Judge to go deep in this prop, I think he can easily total two bases on Sunday.

In his career against Heaney, Judge has three hits and a homer in 13 at bats. In 2025, Judge has at least two total bases in five of his eight games, totaling nine extra-base hits. He’s hard to fade at this number when he’s a threat to go deep just about every time he steps to the plate. 

Miami Marlins Moneyline (+130) vs. Atlanta Braves

It’s been a brutal start to the season for the Atlanta Braves, as they sit at 1-8 heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins and ace Sandy Alcantara.

Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Alcantara has allowed four earned runs in two starts (9.2 innings of work), posting a 3.72 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Miami is 2-0 in his starts, and it is off to a solid 5-4 start in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Braves are rolling with a bullpen game, starting Grant Holmes, which could be a major issue. Not only was Holmes tagged for four runs in his last outing, but the Braves have a bullpen ERA of 4.71 as a team this season, one of the 10-worst marks in MLB. 

On top of that, the Braves’ offense has been dormant this season, ranking 27th in batting average and 28th in OPS. I’ll gladly back the Marlins are underdogs with Alcantara on the mound.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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