Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Baltimore F5 Run Total, Braves vs Twins Run Line)

Betting two props at plus-money for today's MLB slate.

Aug 17, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports / Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Hump Day!

For today’s Walk Off Wagers, let’s go bold and target two props in plus-money that present value.

In one, we will back a leading Cy Young candidate, and in the other, we will bet on some bats.

Let’s have some fun! All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best MLB Bets Today

• Baltimore Orioles Team Total OVER 2.5 - First 5 innings (+130)
• Braves -1.5 (+120)

Baltimore Orioles Team Total OVER 2.5 Runs First Five innings (+130)

Dodgers starter Walker Buehler has had some extra rest and will be making his first start since August 20th. Still, the Orioles should have the advantage here.

Not only is Buehler’s ERA 6.01 for the season, but it’s 7.36 in the seven and one-third innings he has pitched since the All-Star Break (two starts).

The split that stands out, however, is his lefty batter splits.  

Left-handed batters are hitting .372 vs. Buehler this season, and this Orioles lineup is loaded with left-handed bats and switch hitters. Baltimore will likely only start two right-handed hitters tonight (Eloy Jiminez and Ramon Urias).

Buehler is allowing a massive 2.24 home runs per nine innings this season. The Baltimore Orioles have 147 homers vs. righties this year, second only to the New York Yankees (153).

Buehler’s xSLG and K-rate are in the bottom 10% of the league. Baltimore is slugging .455 and averaging 2.97 runs in the first five innings of games played since the All-Star Break. I’ll take the shot on plus money tonight. 

Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+120)

The Braves will start Cy Young favorite Chris Sale tonight in Minnesota. Sale’s K-rate, Hard-hit rate, and xERA are all in the Top 5% of the league. He has an ERA of 2.69 this season, 2.49 on the road, and 2.39 since the All-Star Break. He pitched six or more innings in his last three starts. 

The Twins will start rookie David Festa, who has allowed 12 earned runs across his last two starts (10 innings pitched).

The Braves have scored 18 runs in the first two games of this series, winning by a margin of two or more runs in each.  

Both teams have been hot-hitting the last two weeks, but the Braves have a major advantage on the bump, and that’s enough to take a shot that they cover the run line tonight for plus money. The Braves have won 16 of the 24 games Sale has started by a margin of two or more runs.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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