Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Yordan Alvarez a Home Run Candidate Again)

MLB betting preview, predictions and prop bets for the Monday, July 1, including home run prop bets for each game!

Jun 26, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) stands in the on-deck circle against the Colorado Rockies during the game at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

There are only three games across Major League Baseball on Monday, so let’s try and find a home run hitter in each!

It’s slim pickings in terms of volume, but it’s hard to ignore the power of Yordan Alvarez when discussing taking a home run prop bet in an Astros game. Further, James Wood of the Nationals is set to make his debut in the bigs, can he go yard? 

We discuss all that and more in Monday’s daily dinger. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday, July 1st

• Yordan Alvarez (+310)
• James Wood (+750)
• Ryan McMahon (+400)

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez is arguably the most dangerous hitter in baseball, posting .294/.371/.520 splits. 

However, the lefty only has 16 homers on the year. He is in the 97th percentile in terms of xSLG and 94th percentile in terms of average exit velocity, but hasn’t had the home run rate as some of the other big hitters in the bigs. 

Yariel Rodriguez of the Blue Jays’ is likely going to struggle against Alvarez, as will the Toronto bullpen. Rodriguez has been a victim of hard contact this season, below the big league average, making for an advantageous matchup for the bat of Alvarez.

James Wood

The Nationals’ No. 1 prospect makes his big league debut on Monday, so let’s shoot for a big outcome and take him to go deep. 

Wood is capable of hitting both lefties and righties, hitting over .325 against each type of pitcher. However, he has a staggering .674 slugging percentage in Triple-A this season against southpaws, which he will face in starter David Peterson. 

Ryan McMahon

Coors Field always suits hitters nicely with the altitude of Colorado playing a role, and Rockies All-Star candidate Ryan McMahon is no different. The second baseman is hitting .280 at home this season with a .469 slugging percentage and seven home runs. 

He’s my pick to go deep on Monday against the Brewers given his underlying metrics that indicate he is hitting even better than his numbers suggest. 

McMahon is in the 96th percentile in hard-hit percentage as well as exit velocity. He rarely strikes out, 12th percentile, meaning he is seeing plenty of pitches and making timely swings. 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.