MLB Playoff Odds vs. Fangraphs Playoff Odds: Who Is Favored to Make Wild Card in AL and NL?

Breaking down the latest MLB playoff odds and how they hold up against Fangraph's latest projections.

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) celebrates after hitting a home run with right fielder Corbin Carroll. / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB playoff picture is really coming into shape ahead of the last month of the regular season, as both wild card races have three teams with at least a three-game cushion on a playoff spot.

Anything can happen over the final month, especially if a team gets really hot, but the odds in both leagues are telling us that the playoff picture may be set – at least with the teams that will be in – at this point in the season.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds and how they compare to Fangraph’s projections with the end of August and all of September left in the regular season. 

American League Playoff Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Baltimore Orioles: -20000
• Cleveland Guardians: -3500
• Houston Astros: -900
• Kansas City Royals: -900
• Minnesota Twins: -900
• Seattle Mariners: +360
• Boston Red Sox: +550
• Detroit Tigers: +2000
• Tampa Bay Rays: +2500
• Toronto Blue Jays: +2500

What’s interesting about these playoff odds is that the New York Yankees – currently in first place in the AL East – have been taken off the board. This is a sign that oddsmakers expect them in the postseason, even if it is in a wild card position. 

Right now, the three wild card spots in the American League are held by the Orioles, Royals and Twins with Boston sitting five games back of the final spot. Seattle, which still has a chance to win the AL West, is the only team outside of Boston that has a realistic chance – based on these odds – to make the playoffs. 

Here’s how Fangraphs views the AL playoff picture, which may give us a spot where we can find some value in the odds for the teams in the hunt.  

Fangraphs AL Playoff Odds

• Baltimore Orioles: 99.0%
• Cleveland Guardians: 95.7%
• Houston Astros: 86.2%
• Kansas City Royals: 89.6%
• Minnesota Twins: 90.1%
• Seattle Mariners: 20.0%
• Boston Red Sox: 14.3%
• Detroit Tigers: 2.9%
• Tampa Bay Rays: 1.6%
• Toronto Blue Jays: 0.5%

Based on implied probability, the current odds for Boston (+550) and Seattle (+360) equate to 15.38% and 21.74% to make the playoffs. So, compared to Fangraphs, they actually may be overpriced in the market. 

With Seattle’s only real path through the division and Boston sitting several games back with just over a month to play, there’s a reason why the AL playoff picture is pretty chalky at this point in the season. 

National League Playoff Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Philadelphia Phillies: -20000
• Arizona Diamondbacks: -3500
• San Diego Padres: -2000
• Atlanta Braves: -500
• New York Mets: +400
• Chicago Cubs: +2000
• San Francisco Giants: +2000
• St. Louis Cardinals: +2000
• Cincinnati Reds: +2500

Similarly to the Yankees in the American League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers are off the board in the National League, a sign that they’ll be in the playoffs in some capacity this fall – barring an unforeseen collapse over the final month. 

However, it is interesting that three wild card teams (San Diego, Arizona and Atlanta) all have -500 odds or better to make the playoffs. The only team truly in the chasing pack is the New York Mets, and they are three games back of Atlanta ahead of Tuesday, Aug. 27’s action. 

The Mets are definitely in play, but based on implied probability, they only have a 20.0 percent chance to make the playoffs. 

Fangraphs NL Playoff Odds

• Philadelphia Phillies: 99.6%
• Arizona Diamondbacks: 96.4%
• San Diego Padres: 96.5%
• Atlanta Braves: 83.8%
• New York Mets: 17.1%
• Chicago Cubs: 2.7%
• San Francisco Giants: 2.6%
• St. Louis Cardinals: 1.8%
• Cincinnati Reds: 0.2%

There aren’t any real surprises in Fangraph’s projections, although the Diamonbacks are actually behind the Padres in those, despite having much better odds to make the playoffs. Based on implied probability, the D-Backs have a 97.22 percent chance to make the playoffs while San Diego sits at 95.24 percent. 

Also, Fangraph’s projections show us that the Mets at +400 may be overvalued in the betting market since they only have a 17.1 percent chance to make the final playoff field. 

If anyone in either league is worth a bet at plus money, it is the Mets, since they have the fewest number of games to overcome to get into the postseason. However, it appears that oddsmakers aren’t expecting much change in the current playoff standings over the final month of regular season baseball.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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