Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Astros Continue Hot June vs. Streaking Mets)

Breaking down a moneyline pick for every game in MLB on Friday, June 28.

Jun 22, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Fans hold signs as Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The weekend of baseball is here, and two streaking teams look to continue its form in a measuring stick matchup for each club.

The Houston Astros and New York Mets have erased slow starts to the year to get back to .500 and in the Wild Card picture in its respective leagues, but who will have the edge in the series opener on Friday?

I have bets for EVERY game on the loaded Friday night card, catch it all below.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-235)

No team struggles more against left handed pitching than the Marlins, who are last in OPS against southpaws. 

Philadelphia should build on its NL East lead. 

Nationals vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+135)

The Nats are a strong underdog pick in a battle of two teams flirting with getting above .500 as we hit the halfway point of the season. 

Washington will start lefty Mitchell Parker, who can showcase his fine control and elite breaking ball pitches, against a Rays team that is about league average against lefty pitching. 

Rangers vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-135)

While Max Scherezer may give the Rangers some upside in this matchup, the team isn’t hitting well enough in the month of June to trust as underdogs against an elite Orioles team. 

Texas is 28th in OPS in the month of June and has a below average bullpen as Scherezer still may be eased into his role in just his second start of the season. 

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (+100)

New York has dropped nine of 10 games and it may not get easier against the Blue Jays left hander Yusei Kikuchi.

The Yankees lineup has been shallow around MVP front runner Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and the team is below average in OPS this season against left handed pitching, which Kikuchi is. 

With that in mind, I’ll keep fading the Yankees. 

Rockies vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+105)

It’s tough to decipher the difference between these teams, each team is more than 25 games under .500, and with that in mind I’ll grab the underdog Rockies in a game that features two futile clubs. 

Astros vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-115)

Two of the hottest teams in baseball in the month of June meet in Flushing, New York on Friday. 

I’ll side with the road favorite Astros, who have finally gotten on track this season and will start one of its more consistent starters in Ronel Blanco. 

Blanco has been pitching above expectations this season, but not more than Jose Quintana of the Mets, who has posted an xERA of 5.14 with a 15th percentile hard-hit percentage. 

Both teams are playing its best, but I’ll give the nod to Houston. 

Padres vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-155)

Nick Pivetta is an underrated arm in the American League postseason picture. A savvy veteran who does a good job at forcing soft contact, Pivetta has continued to strike out batters at a high clip (81st percentile). The righty has an ERA of 4.06, but his xERA is slightly lower at 3.95. 

Boston is rightfully a considerable favorite, but its the only side I can back. 

Pirates vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-180)

Atlanta is just outside the top 10 in OPS against left handed pitching, and should have little issue knocking around Martin Perez, who is in the fourth percentile in terms of xBA and has an xERA of 5.70. 

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (+115)

I can’t trust Colin Rea of the Brewers, one of the most regression bound pitchers in baseball. 

Rea is in the bottom 10 percentile in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate, a futile trio to be included in. 

Meanwhile, the Cubs lineup is far below the quality of the Brewers, but the team has the edge on the mound with Jameson Taillon, who has a 2.90 ERA with an elite hard-hit percentage (80th percentile), which can limit the ability for Milwaukee to have a big outing at the plate. 

Guardians vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (+100)

The Royals maintain a strong home record at Kauffman Field, 28-15 at home, and I like the team’s chances of winning a second straight against the Guardians. 

Cleveland will start Triston McKenzie, who has struggled all season, and it can get worse. McKenzie has no control of his pitches this season, his 14% walk rate is in the fourth percentile, and has an xERA of 5.24. 

The Royals lineup is struggling, but at home I like the team to handle McKenzie. 

Reds vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+110)

I view this game as a coin flip, so I’m inclined to go with the underdog Reds who have a slight pitching edge on Friday. 

Frankie Montas isn’t striking out batters at the same clip as he has in the past, but has done an excellent job of limiting hard contact with an increased blend of off-speed pitches. 

The Reds have been the better team at the plate of late, 11th in OPS this month compared to the Cardinals at 16th, and I’ll take them as road underdogs. 

Tigers vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+100)

The Tigers aren’t the upstart contender we envisioned in the preseason, and shouldn’t be favored against many teams on the road when starting Kenta Maeda. 

Maeda has seen his strikeout rate dwindle to 17%, about 10% lower than last season, and its shown in his spike in ERA to 6.00. 

Twins vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-130)

Logan Gilbert should be able to navigate a surging Twins lineup and get the Mariners an impressive win. 

Gilbert has an ERA of 2.71 while showcasing pinpoint command (86th percentile) with the most devastating breaking ball pitches in the bigs this season (100th percentile in terms of run value). 

He’s a must bet at a small price tag. 

Athletics vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-155)

Arizona is the third best hitting team against left handed pitching in terms of batting average (.272), which sets up nicely against J.P. Sears of the Athletics. 

Dodgers vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-110)

The Giants will hope Logan Webb can continue to string together consistent efforts with a 94th percentile groundball rate, and limit the power of the Dodgers with his command, 86th percentile walk rate, to get the Giants a win against its high priced division foe. 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will turn to rookie Landon Knack, who has shown some promise, but his 2.10 ERA is supported by a 3.28 xERA.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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