Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Underdog Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on Mound)

Reed Wallach | Jul 31, 2024

Jul 25, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws against the San Francisco Giants during the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

A few years ago, you simply wouldn't see Clayton Kershaw listed as an underdog, but now in 2024, times have changed.

Even though the Dodgers remain the World Series favorite, the team is an underdog with its former Cy Young winner on the mound as he ramps up from offseason surgery in hopes of mkaing an impact in the postseason. The team is a small underdog against the San Diego Padres, with Dylan Cease set to start off his no hitter last week.

Should we back the Dodgers?

Here's our in-depth betting breakdown of Wednesday's slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Marlins vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-240)

The Rays are rightfully a big favorite on Wednesday afternoon with Taj Bradley on the mound. 

The budding star has a 2.16 ERA since June 1 as he is punching out nearly seven batters per start. The Marlins, who are among the three worst hitting teams in baseball will have little success at the dish and I expect Tampa Bay to roll.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-240)

The Blue Jays, now a bit more shallow in the starting rotation after trading Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline, will not have the ability to slow down the Orioles lineup that is top 10 in OPS on the year. 

Paolo Espino will operate as an opener of sorts, he’s made only two appearances in the big leagues this season, last playing a full season as a converted starter in 2022 where he had a 4.84 ERA. 

Count on Baltimore at home. 

Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-130)

The Yankees took the first two games of this interleague series, but Wednesday’s matchup favors the Phillies quite a bit as the Yankees are below the big league average in OPS against lefties while Philadelphia is the best in Major League Baseball. 

This is impactful when assessing the pitching matchup that features a pair of lefties with Nestor Cortes toeing the rubber for the Yankees and Cristopher Sanchez opposing him for the Phillies. 

Without a tangible edge on the mound, I’ll side with the better hitting lineup in Philadelphia. 

Twins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-105)

While Pablo Lopez is owed some positive regression, he has a 3.45 xERA that is far better than his 4.73 ERA with elite command, I can’t trust the Twins against the scorching Mets, who have the best record in baseball since June. 

With a capable arm like Luis Severino on the mound, 3.58 ERA supported by a 3.76 xERA, I’ll side with the slight home underdog. 

Royals vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-200)

The White Sox have dropped 16 straight, I can’t advise a bet on them as the Royals continue to send out quality arms like Brady Singer to keep down a listless lineup. 

Braves vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-125)

Both teams come in banged up, and reliant on two stud pitchers to navigate a victory.

While Brewers hard throwing starter Freddy Peralta has plenty of talent, Chris Sale is the NL Cy Young to this point and should put it on display on Wednesday. 

He draws a good matchup against a Brewers team that is about league average in OPS against left handed pitching, but will be without Christian Yelich at the top of the lineup. Milwaukee is 3-3 since Yelich got injured, averaging fewer than four runs per game. 

Count on Sale to push Atlanta to victory.

Rangers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (-110)

I’m going to fade the Cardinals against a lefty starter on Wednesday. The offense will struggle with Andrew Heaney (3.77 ERA) as the team has the second lowest OPS in the big leagues this season against southpaws. 

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-180)

MacKenzie Gore is turning into a high end rotation arm, but the lefty is set to struggle against a Diamondbacks team that is third in OPS against southpaws. 

Further, with the reliable Zac Gallen on the mound, Arizona should have little issue plating runs and keeping pace in the crowded NL Wild Card picture.

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (+100)

George Kirby has been on a tear of late, posting a 1.88 ERA in his last 10 starts while punching out more than six batters per start. However, he’ll face a stiff test with the Red Sox operating at a high level at the plate. 

With the Mariners suspect offense on the other side, 20th in OPS since the All-Star break, I’m going to side with the home underdog Red Sox, who are second in OPS in that same timeframe. 

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-150)

This is a pure fade of Kyle Hendricks, 6.95 ERA, in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark. 

The Reds have plenty of capable bats that can tee off on the soft tossing veteran. 

Pirates vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (+190)

I’ll take a flier on the big underdogs in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night as I’m unconvinced Framber Valdez can justify this price tag. 

The lefty has been banged up all season and hasn’t pitched to expectation all year as he has been crushed by hard contact (third percentile) and has seen his strikeout rate drop below his career average. 

Pittsburgh is about league average in OPS against left handed pitchers, I believe this game will be far closer than this price suggests. 

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (+115)

Clayton Kershaw made his first start of the season last week, pitching four innings and allowing two earned runs while allowing six hits and striking out six. 

He’ll be matched up against a Padres lineup who has struggled against lefties for much of this season, 20th in batting average. However, San Diego is considerable favorites with Dylan Cease on the mound, a week removed from a no hitter. 

I’m going to play against it, though, as the Dodgers lineup is still among the best in baseball and can put some pressure on the high heat, yet sometimes erratic, Cease. 

I’ll take the Dodgers. 

Rockies vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (-135)

The Angels are right at the big league average against lefty pitchers, so I’m comfortable taking the home favorite to beat the lowly Rockies on Friday night. 

Athletics vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+175)

Oakland won the first meeting against its cross-town rival Giants, and I like the sweet swinging A’s to keep it up on Wednesday. 

Since the All-Star break, Oakland is hitting like a top five team in terms of OPS, and its ability to generate power is notable against Giants starter Logan Webb, who has been allowing a ton of hard contact this season, ranking in the second percentile in hard-hit rate. 

This has manifested in a bloated xERA, 4.35, which is far higher than his 3.72 ERA as he is struggling to strike batters out at a league average clip. 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.