Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Dodgers to Dominant Ways with Mookie Betts Back)

Reed Wallach | Aug 13, 2024

Aug 12, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right field Mookie Betts (50) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports / Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Mookie Betts NL MVP season was cut short due to a broken hand, but he is back for the stretch run of the 2024 MLB season, and his impact is clear.

Betts homered in his first game back for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday, and will look to help the team lock up the NL West in short over. Can the Dodgers take care of the Milwaukee Brewers for a second straight game and cash for bettors as small favorites?

Here's how to bet the entire Tuesday, Aug. 13 betting card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Nationals vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-175)

The Nationals are untrustworthy against left handed pitching, so I’ll favor the Orioles to take care of business at home in this nearby interleague matchup. 

The Orioles are fourth in OPS since the All-Star break while the Nats are bottom four in OPS against left handed pitching, so count on the O’s starter Trevor Rogers to get off to a strong start and for Baltimore to dictate this game. 

Mariners vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (+100)

Tarik Skubal shut down the Mariners last week, pitching seven innings of two-run baseball, but I’ll back Seattle in this matchup as I believe George Kirby can keep up with the AL Cy Young favorite. 

Kirby is an elite arm, pitching to a 3.13 ERA with a sub-three percent walk rate, which is impactful against the Tigers limited lineup that is last in batting average since the All-Star break.

I can’t trust Detroit as a favorite, even with Skubal on the bump. 

Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-135)

Hunter Greene is in the fringes of the Cy Young conversation, and his ability to toss high heat will be impactful against the Cardinals, who are bottom five in OPS since the start of August. 

Greene is in the 97th in xBA with an 87th percentile hard-hit rate. The Cards won’t be able to pounce on the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, which should set up for a Cincy win. 

Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+155)

Taijuan Walker will make his first start since late June after a dismal start to the season that featured a first percentile hard-hit rate and first percentile xERA. 

I can’t trust him to show out, even against the Marlins, with the Phillies being a suspect lineup for an extended period of time. Since mid July, the Phillies are 20th in OPS. 

Keep fading the Phils until the lineup gets sorted out. 

Cubs vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (+120)

Javier Assad cooled off after a hot start to the season, but I believe he is being undervalued against a Guardians team that has faltered as the season has gone on. 

Assad is 65th in hard-hit rate, which will help at Progressive Field, and I like this setup for the Cubs against Matthew Boyd, who is making his first start since late June. This can be a limited outing for the veteran, which adds more variance into this matchup. 

Astros vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-140)

The Astros are rightfully favored in this Tuesday night matchup against the Rays, as young flamethrower Shane Baz is ripe for a step back as he continues to be stretched out. 

Baz has an ERA of 4.29 in six starts and has been crushed by hard contact, allowing 51% of balls in play to be deemed “hard” by MLB Statcast. He has an xERA of 5.18 this season, which sets up for big issues against an Astros team that doesn’t strike out (bottom five in total strikeouts) and is 11th in OPS since the All-Star break. 

Athletics vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-150)

The Mets return home from a West Coast road trip, and should be in good shape against the A’s with former Oakland starter Paul Blackburn toeing the rubber against his old club. 

Blackburn has been in good form for his new team, posting a 1.50 ERA in two starts, building on a solid season with Oakland. Blackburn’s ability to generate soft, ground ball contact, top 70 percentile in both, sets up nicely for the Mets at home. 

Rangers vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-150)

The Red Sox hit the ball hard, which is a big issue against Jose Urena of the Rangers. 

Boston is top five in OPS, and Urena is bottom 30 percentile in hard-hit percentage, so I expect the home can continue to rake at the plate and put up a ton of runs to out-pace the Rangers offense

Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-120)

The Royals continue to be a fade on the road, where the team is a meager 27-29 and hits like a bottom 10 unit. 

Kansas City has feasted at home, but struggles on the road, so I’ll opt for the more consistent Twins offense to get the job done at Target Field, where the club is 35-23 on the season. 

Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-130)

Mookie Betts returned to the Dodgers lineup in style on Monday, hitting a home run in his first game in several months after breaking his hand. 

I like the good times to keep rolling for the NL West leader as the team should feast on Colin Rea, who has been primed for regression all season. He has an xERA that far outweighs his actual ERA, 4.75 xERA vs. 3.38 ERA, and is in the 22nd percentile in hard-hit percentage. 

I’ll happily back the Dodgers to feast on Rea’s concerning underlying metrics.

Yankees vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-300)

The Yankees lost as big favorites on Monday, but should get back on track Tuesday as the lineup can feast on Jonathan Cannon, who struggles to find strikeouts. The rookie is striking out only 16% of batters, seventh percentile, and will give the Yankees far too many opportunities to pounce on his suspect off-speed pitches. 

Blue Jays vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+110)

Kevin Gausman can’t be trusted as a road favorite, even against a somewhat lowly Angels roster. 

Gausman has an ERA of 4.42, and his underlying stats are even worse, posting an xERA of 5.08 with a lower than career average strikeout rate of 21% (below his career mean of 25%). 

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-205)

I’m not catching the falling knife of the Pirates, who have dropped eight straight games as the team’s season appears to be coming to an end. 

Michael King continues to pitch at a high level, elite at generating soft contact, 96th percentile, and there is a reckoning coming for Luis L. Ortiz, who has been overachieving all season. He has a 3.40 ERA that is supported by a 4.09 xERA and a high hard-hit rate. 

Trust San Diego at home. 

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-210)

Arizona is the second best team against left handed pitching, so I’ll happily back the team at a reasonable number against Austin Gomber and a limited Rockies bullpen.

Braves vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-110)

The Braves won an extra innings pitchers duel on Monday night, and while the offenses may come alive on Tuesday, I like Atlanta to continue to rack up wins in this Wild Card-centric matchup. 

Kyle Harrison continues to be a suspect arm, and the Braves are an above average hitting team against left handed pitching. Harrison has been crushed by hard contact, 11th percentile, and has no movement on his off-speed pitches (third in run value). 

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