Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Keep Fading the Yankees)

Breaking down a moneyline pick for every MLB game on Wednesday, July 3.

Jul 2, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Aaron Judge (99) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

We are past the midway point of the season and the next tentpole event is the All-Star break, and after that the trade deadline.

It appears that the New York Yankees are going to be in need of reinforcements as the team's overall play has dropped over the last two weeks. Questions along the lineup and the pitching staff are becoming more clear and it'll be on display with Carlos Rodon on Wednesday.

Find out why I'm fading the Yankees on Wednesday with Rodon on the mound as well as my bets for every game below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+155)

Chicago is a tough team to trust at 24-63 on the year, especially against the vaunted 53-30 Guardians, but I’ll take the big road underdog on Wednesday with Erick Fedde on the mound. 

Fedde is enjoying a strong season with the White Sox, striking out a career best 22% of batters while doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact (68th percentile). 

While the White Sox offense leaves a ton to be desired, I believe Fedde can hold down the Guardians lineup to give Chicago a puncher’s chance at this number. 

Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+125)

The Red Sox are a top 10 hitting offense against lefty pitching, but I’ll trust Trevor Rogers on Wednesday with the Marlins at home. 

The main component of this bet is a fade of Brayan Bello, who is struggling to limit hard contact and find much movement on his pitches (second in pitching run value). Bello ranks in the 33rd percentile in hard hit percentage, and an even limited Marlins offense may be able to string together runs against Bello.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (-125)

Pittsburgh’s rookie Jared Jones is a bit volatile, but the talent is no doubt there, ranking in the 78th percentile in strikeout rate and has a ton of pop on his fastball (94th percentile). 

I believe Pittsburgh, who has a similar offense and an edge on the mound against righty Miles Mikolas, can get it done it home at a near coin flip price.

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-130)

The Mets continue to thrive against left handed pitching, and the Nationals keep on trotting them out there. 

The team is top five in OPS against southpaws, and while the streaking Mets have won each of the last two against the Nationals in extra innings, the Nats lowly bullpen is taxed and not equipped to handle the strong lineup late in games. 

New York should start fast and get another win. 

Reds vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+150)

In a battle of two left handed pitchers, I’ll take the big underdog. 

Both the Yankees and Reds are at the big league average in OPS against left handed pitching, so there is no significant edge there, and I’m interested in continuing to fade Carlos Rodon, who posted a 7.76 ERA in five June starts. 

Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-105)

I’ll take a stab on the small underdog Blue Jays on Wednesday given the Astros middling numbers against left handing pitching (12th in OPS). 

Further, I’m interested in fading Ronel Blanco, who has an xERA of 3.55 with a high walk rate that puts him in troublesome situations and can lead to some blowup outings eventually. 

Giants vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-200)

I’ll back Cy Young candidate Chris Sale to take care of business against the Giants, who are middling against left handed pitching. 

Sale has found his punchout pitch with good health this season, striking out more than 32% of batters with an xBA of just .208. 

Atlanta has the edge on Wednesday and is rightfully a big favorite. 

Padres vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (+120)

I’ll fade Jon Gray on Wednesday, who has an xERA far higher than his actual ERA (3.77 vs. 4.56) with a high hard-hit percentage, ranking in the 12th percentile. 

The Padres have plenty of power in the lineup with the likes of Manny Machado and promising rookie Jackson Merrill. Gray ranks in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity, which can lead to plenty of extra base hits and a small upset from the Padres. 

Phillies vs. Cubs  Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (+110)

I’ll buy low on the Cubs with Shota Imanaga on the mound, who is due for a positive bounce after a poor month of June. 

Imanaga still has pinpoint control and doesn’t give any easy bases to opponents, which can keep the Cubs close against Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler, who may be due for a minor set back (actual ERA: 2.73 vs. xERA of 2.98). 

Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (+140)

I don’t believe David Festa can justify this price tag, the team’s highly touted prospect who only had two strikeouts in five innings in his big league debut. 

There’s simply too much variance on the mound to not take a stab on the Tigers at a big underdog price.

Rays vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-110)

Tampa Bay pulled away on Tuesday, but I’ll go back to the well on the Royals, who is 30-17 at home this season. 

Brewers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+130)

The red flags are clear on Brewers starter Colin Rea, who has a 3.61 ERA but a 5.31 xERA. 

Rea has been lucky to avoid bad starts, ranking in the bottom 10 percentile in xERA, xBA and whiff percentage. 

In a hitter friendly Coors Field, I’ll back the Rockies as big home underdogs.

Angels vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (-105)

The Angels got a strong first start out of Davis Daniel last week, tossing eight innings of shutout baseball. 

I don’t figure that to continue for the 27-year-old, who didn’t dish out a walk in that first start. 

Give me the home underdog A’s in a regression spot for Daniel and the Halos.

Orioles vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-120)

The Mariners couldn’t plate a run in the team’s opener against the Orioles, a sign of the team’s struggles on offense, but I’ll go back to the well with Logan Gilbert and Seattle at home. 

Dean Kremer will make his first start in more than a month, so he may be either erratic or limited to a pitch count, which can add more variance to the O’s side of things on the mound. 

Meanwhile, Gilbert should continue his All-Star form, ranking in the 99th percentile in pitching run value with a blistering fastball that ranks in the 83rd percentile in velocity. 

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+175)

The D-Backs will start Cristian Mena in his big league debut, which is a tough ask against the loaded Dodgers lineup, but I’ll take the big underdog that has a loaded offense behind him. 

I think we can get paid on fading Gavin Stone also. He has a 2.74 ERA, but his xERA sits at 3.61 with a shaky punch out pitch (32nd percentile). 

Arizona is a top half offense that can knock around Stone and make this game more of a toss-up. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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