Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Mets Continue to Own Subway Series)

Breaking down a pick for MLB game in action on Wednesday, June 26.

Jun 21, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) gestures after hitting a double against the Chicago Cubs during the fourth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

A day of baseball commences this afternoon with 16 (!) games on the docket.

However, all eyes continue to look at the New York Mets, who are streaking towards the NL Wild Card picture and look to take a second straight game from the New York Yankees in the Subway Series.

Can the Mets keep it up against AL Rookie of the Year favorite, Luis Gil? Here are our picks

Mariners vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-120)

George Kirby continues to showcase pinpoint control, posting a 99th percentile walk rate (2%), and his ability to yield soft contact, 71st percentile, makes me confident he can outperform this price in a near pick ‘em for the AL West leading Mariners. 

Phillies vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-175)

The Phillies crush left handed pitching, fourth in OPS against southpaws, which is impactful on Wednesday against Tigers starter Tyler Holton. 

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (+115)

This game is a true coin flip, so I’m inclined to take the road underdog. 

Graham Ashcraft has struggled in 2024, posting a 5.05 ERA with an xERA that is right around that at 4.83. He is struggling to get swings and misses, a 17% strikeout rate, and has been crushed by hard contact, eight percentile in hard-hit rate. 

Braves vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-135)

After yesterday’s rain out, we get a double header on Wednesday, starting with the same matchup on Tuesday. 

Both Reynaldo Lopez of the Braves and Kyle Gibson of the Cardinals have massive regression looming, but I’ll trust Atlanta’s offense to handle a soft-tossing Gibson who is allowing a ton of hard contact (29th percentile in hard-hit percentage). 

Rangers vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (+100)

This is likely Dallas Keuchel, who has fallen way off from his MLB form, but gets a favorable landing spot against a Rangers team that can’t hit lefties. Texas is 22nd in OPS against southpaws.

Marlins vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-220)

This is more of a fade of Valente Bellozo, who is making his big league debut after struggling in the minors this season, making 11 starts with a 5.02 ERA. 

Rockies vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-200)

Houston is starting to round into form, winners of six straight, and Spencer Arrighetti remains a prime regression candidate, pitching better than his 6.36 ERA indicates with a 4.55 xERA. 

The Astros should make it seven in a row on Wednesday. 

Athletics vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+105)

In a battle of two rebuilding teams, I’ll take the underdog. 

Both teams are bottom five in batting average in month of June and I see little difference between the two teams to make one the favorite. 

Nationals vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-190)

San Diego will start Dylan Cease on Wednesday, who hasn’t fully lived up to the hype in his first season out west, posting a 4.14 ERA, but he should be able to improve his standing with a 3.60 xERA and incredibly low hard-hit rate (59th percentile). 

I’ll back some positive regression and take San Diego. 

Guardians vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-185)

The Orioles are on five game skid, but I like the team on Wednesday despite a big price tag. 

Grayson Rodriguez is a promising piece of the Orioles rotation, 3.82 ERA, and should be able to navigate the Guardians lineup far better than veteran Carlos Carrasco can, who has a 5.40 ERA. 

Yankees vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (+110)

The Mets won the opening game of the Subway Series, 9-7, and I like the team’s chances to make it two in a row given the pitching matchup. 

Luis Gil had his first trip-up of the season, allowing seven earned runs in an one-and-a-third innings, and now faces the best lineup in terms of OPS in June in the Mets. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees offense continues to be middling against lefty pitchers, bottom half of the bigs in OPS, so this can be a good landing spot for Sean Manaea to keep up a solid season. 

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-155)

I’ll back Boston as a home favorite, the team is fourth in OPS in hitting this month. 

Braves vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cardinals (+100)

The second game of the double header I’ll back the home underdog with two untrustworthy pitchers on the mound in Bryce Elder of the Braves and Andre Pallante. Both pitchers have an ERA north of 5.00, giving the edge to the + money price tag. 

Dodgers vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+150)

Erick Fedde is the best pitcher on the White Sox staff, so I’ll take the big price tag in hopes of the team pulling a massive upset. 

Dodgers starter Gavin Stone does have a middling walk rate while also struggling to get strikeouts (19%), making me queasy of laying a big number on the road.

Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+100)

Arizona is worth a bet at + money against a Twins team that is not certainly a better team than the hosts. 

Ryne Nelson does struggle to strike batters out, but does have some promising underlying metrics, like an xERA that is 4.87 which far out-paces a 5.18 ERA. 

Cubs vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (+105)

In a battle of two struggling offense, I’ll take the underdog at + money with decent pitching on the mound in Hayden Wesneski (3.29 ERA). 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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