Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Predictions for Mariners-Dodgers, Orioles vs. Mets)

Breaking down the best moneyline picks for the MLB action on Monday, Aug. 19.

Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts. / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Major League Baseball season is nearing its final month of regular season action, and there is a condensed slate on Monday, Aug. 10 with just 20 of the league's 30 teams in action.

That still gives us plenty of games to bet on, including multiple matchups with plenty of palyoff implications. The first is between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets, as they are vying for wild card position in their respective leagues.

Then, in the late-night matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to stake their case for the No. 1 seed in the National League when they take on the struggling Seattle Mariners.

As we do every day at SI Betting, here's a moneyline pick for each game in MLB on Monday night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: D-Backs -205

Brandon Pfaadt is on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I think that's a great sign for them -- even on the road.

The former fifth-round pick has a 3.98 ERA this season, but his advanced numbers show that he's been even better. Pfaadt has a 3.39 expected ERA, and he ranks in the 91st percentile in walk percentage and 75th percentile in chase rate.

The Marlins have not announced a starter for this game, but they have not been good this season, even at home. Miami is 15 games under .500 at home this season, and it has the second worst run differential in the National League.

I'll gladly trust Pfaadt with the D-Backs still in the mix for the playoffs.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays -166

The Toronto Blue Jays aren't going to be a playoff team this season -- barring something unforseen -- but they have the edge on Monday against the reeling Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds were swept by the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, and they're now four games under .500 and in fourth place in the NL Central despite having the second best run differential in the division.

Kevin Gausman is on the mound for the Jays, and he's led them to six straight wins in his starts, improving Toronto's record in his starts to 14-10 this season.

Gausman has allowed just two runs and nine hits across 15.0 innings of work in his last two starts, and I think he can slow down this Reds team with the Jays at home. Cincy has yet to announce a starter, which is concerning given its lack of depth in the rotation in 2024.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets -130

I don't love betting on David Peterson at any time, especially against a playoff team like Baltimore, but the Orioles are leaving me no choice by starting Trevor Rogers.

Let's start with the Peterson side of things, though.

The lefty has a 3.04 ERA on the season, which seems great, but his advanced numbers are awful. Peterson has a 5.31 expected ERA in 2024, and he ranks in the 12th percentile in hard hit percentage and expected batting average against.

Yet, the Mets are 10-3 in his outings this season. So, I'm going to trust him against Rogers, who hasn't turned things around since being acquired at the trade deadline from Miami.

In three starts with the O's, Rogers has a 7.53 ERA, allowing 20 hits and 12 earned runs in 14.1 innings of work. The Orioles are just 1-2 in those games, and Rogers has allowed at least five earned runs in two of those starts.

I'll take the Mets to pull out a win at home in this one.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates +105

Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers are struggling over their last 10 games, with the Rangers winning on Sunday to move to 3-7 over that stretch.

Now, Texas is favored at home on Monday despite not naming a starter yet for this game. That's where my concern begins.

The Rangers have the fourth worst bullpen ERA in the league -- 4.53 -- this season, which means a bullpen game could be a disaster for the defending World Series champions.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have dropped four straight starts by Luis L. Ortiz. Still, Ortiz has a 3.41 ERA on the season, and since entering the rotation on July 7, he only has two outings where he has allowed more than three earned runs.

I'll take a shot on the Pirates as underdogs in this one.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros -125

Did the Houston Astros strike gold at the trade deadline by adding veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi?

Kikuchi has a 2.70 ERA and has struck out 24 batters over 16.2 innings of work since joining the Astros, going 2-0 himself and led the 'Stros to a 3-0 record. Kikuchi has allowed just 10 total hits over that stretch.

Meanwhile, Boston is starting All-Star Tanner Houck, who has not led the Sox to a win since before the All-Star break. In his five starts since, Houck has given up 33 hits in 29.2 innings of work, posting a 4.85 ERA.

With Boston's bullpen also struggling (bottom five in MLB), I have to back Houston at home with it surging in the AL standings by winning nine of its last 10 games.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals -205

I don't love betting on the Royals at this price with Seth Lugo struggling a bit, but they should take down this lowly Angels team on Monday.

Carson Fulmer gets the start for the Angels, and he has a 4.22 ERA on the season -- a number which has risen to 4.82 across six starts.

Lugo has been good all season, posting a 3.04 ERA, but he has allowed 14 runs over his last two starts. I think he can bounce back at home, especially since the Royals are a dominant team at Kauffman Stadium, going 38-25 straight up.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A's Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays -135

Rays righty Taj Bradley ha struggled over his last three starts, allowing four or more earned runs in each of them, but he has a prime bounce-back spot on Monday.

Bradley still has a 3.49 ERA this season, and he was lights out until his final start of July. Now, he gets a shot at a poor Oakland A's team that is starting Joe Boyle (7.39 ERA) in this game.

Somehow, the A's won Boyle's last start despite him giving up four runs and seven hits over four innings of work. I can't trust him in this spot after he struggled mightily over the first few months of the season.

Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres -162

San Diego Padres righty Michael King has been great to bet on this season, leading the Padres to a 16-8 record in his 24 appearances.

Not only that, but King has been even better as the season has gone on, posting a 1.94 ERA over his last seven starts, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all of them.

He goes up against Twins youngster Zebby Matthews, who is making his second career Major League appearance.

San Diego has been rolling, winning seven of its last 10 games, and it has won four straight starts by King. I'll bet on the Padres making it five straight tonight.

Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants -245

The White Sox lost back-to-back games over the weekend, and they have just 30 wins on the season.

Even though starter Jonathan Cannon has looked good at points this season, I can't trust the bullpen behind him that ranks 29th in MLB in ERA.

Kyle Harrison has been up and down for the San Francisco Giants in 2024, but he should slow down the worst offense in baseball enough for the Giants to win at home.

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers -142

The Seattle Mariners snapped their losing streak on Sunday, but I don't expect it to last long with the Los Angeles Dodgers next on the schedule.

Seattle is one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking 28th in OPS, and that's problematic when facing a top-five Dodgers offense that just got Mookie Betts back in action.

Seattle starter Bryan Woo has been great in 2024, posting a 2.06 ERA in 14 starts, but the M's somehow found a way to lose his last outing after he tossed seven scoreless innings.

I don't see things coming easy for Woo against the Dodgers, and Gavin Stone -- L.A.'s starter -- has been great in 2024 as well, leading them to a 14-8 record in 22 outings while putting together a 3.63 ERA.

I'll trust the Dodgers at home where they are 16 games over .500. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been awful on the road, going 27-35 this season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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